Alexiev wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 4:31 pm
BigMike wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:56 am
Alexiev, your response raises an important question: what does it mean for a concept to "work," and how does determinism fit into that standard? Let's tackle this head-on, because your concerns about its relevance to human behavior and society deserve a clear, thoughtful answer.
First, let’s clarify something fundamental. Determinism isn’t a tool for predicting every micro-decision a person will make, like which shirt they’ll wear tomorrow. That would be absurd—just as it would be absurd to criticize evolutionary theory for not predicting the exact patterns of spots on a leopard. What determinism
does offer is a framework for understanding the forces shaping human behavior. And while you claim that determinism is irrelevant to enumerating these causes, it’s actually central to identifying them. Here’s why.
When we acknowledge that every action is caused, we shift the focus from
blame to
causation. This is not just a philosophical sleight of hand; it’s a paradigm shift that changes how we address societal problems. Take criminal justice. If we cling to the illusion of free will, we justify punishment as retribution—a moral payback for a freely chosen act. But if we accept that behavior is determined by biology, environment, and circumstance, we begin to ask different questions: What factors caused this behavior? How can we address those factors to reduce harm in the future? This is why, for example, rehabilitation programs grounded in neuroscience—like cognitive behavioral therapy for offenders—often outperform punitive measures in reducing recidivism. That’s determinism at work.
You argue that the web of causes is too complex, too "dimly lit," to be useful. But isn’t that an argument for doing the hard work of illuminating it further, not dismissing its importance? Scientists, sociologists, and policymakers are already using deterministic principles—whether they call them that or not—to identify patterns and intervene effectively. Behavioral economists study how predictable biases like loss aversion shape decision-making. Public health experts design interventions based on the social determinants of health. Even the move away from zero-tolerance policies in schools toward restorative practices reflects a deterministic understanding of behavior. These efforts are yielding measurable results, and they all rest on the premise that behavior is caused, not chosen freely in some vacuum.
Your analogy of the gambler and the cards overlooks a critical distinction: gamblers operate under uncertainty, but the deterministic framework aims to reduce uncertainty by uncovering patterns in the causes of behavior. You’re right that economists once assumed people were rational actors, but when behavioral economists showed that decisions are predictably irrational, they didn’t abandon determinism—they embraced it. They dug into the causal factors behind that irrationality, from cognitive biases to social influences. That’s determinism advancing our understanding, not standing in its way.
Finally, let’s address your claim that determinism is "meaningless" unless it enumerates causes. That’s like saying gravity is meaningless unless it can account for the trajectory of every falling leaf. Determinism isn’t about listing every cause in an infinite chain; it’s about recognizing that such a chain exists and using that recognition to focus on actionable causes. It’s the difference between saying, “People commit crimes because they’re bad” and saying, “What circumstances—poverty, trauma, lack of education—lead to criminal behavior, and how can we change them?”
So, how does determinism "work"? It works by reframing problems in a way that leads to solutions. It dismantles the futile cycle of blame and replaces it with a focus on understanding and intervention. It works in the courtroom, in the classroom, and in the lab. It works because it aligns with reality—and that’s what science is supposed to do. If you want a more just, effective society, determinism isn’t irrelevant; it’s indispensable.
Your conclusions do not follow from your premises, Mike.
You state that shifting the focus from "blame" to "understanding and intervention" will lead to a kinder, juster society. But why would it? Perhaps blame-avoidance is one of the "causes" that determines morally sound behaviors. Morally commendable individuals used to be called "God-fearing". That makes sense. The fear of God's disapproval (or of that of your fellow humans) might be one "cause" of people choosing to avoid anti-social behaviors. Indeed, it seems likely that shifting the focus away from blame would increase crime rather than reducing it.
Besides, everyone (whether determinists or not) would like to discover practical ways in which to reduce crime, improve the education system, and promote human welfare. One need not be a determinist to recognize that eliminating poverty might reduce crime. So how does a determinist worldview help? It doesn't.
In addition, the strictly determinist worldview posits that there are infinite "causes" for everything -- a chain of causality that stretches back to the Big Bang. Instead of helping improve the world, this leads to a culture of helplessness. Since you don't like my analogy of the card player, let's turn to chess.
Suppose a chess player loses 3 games in a row after opening E4. So he goes to the library, gets a book on modern openings, and chooses to open C3 next time he plays. What "caused" this choice? What possible good does it do to claim the choice was destined from the Big Bang? Wouldn't it be more reasonable to say he was tired of losing and so chose to go to the library and study a different opening? Why muddle his motivations with ancient history, when they are explicable far more easily? He wants to win, he has been losing with E4, he studied a new opening, and he chose to try it. What possible difference would it make if his desire to win, his choice to go to the library, etc., etc. were destined from eternity? The more proximate causes I mention are better explanations of his choice.
In addition, your thought that a determinist worldview will prevent "blame" is incorrect. Why would it? Why is evil less evil if it is unavoidable? The Calvinists believed in predetermination, but they can hardly be described as a group that refused to ascribe blame. INstead, they were, if anything, overly censorious.
My position: it's impossible to discover whether everything is determined or not. It's also irrelevant. I'd guess that your approach of refusing to ascribe blame to murderers, rapists, and child molesters would hardly be an effective way to limit such behaviors. On the contrary, it would encourage them. Also, it is a non-sequitur to claim that we should not ascribe blame to predetermined actions. If the chess player makes a mistake and loses his queen, he SHOULD blame himself. How else will he learn to avoid the mistake in the future? If he thinks "Oh, well, I was fated to make that stupid move," his chances of improvement will be severely limited (even it his analysis is correct).
Alexiev, let’s tackle this point by point, starting with your claim that determinism leads to helplessness or irrelevance. Determinism, grounded in science, doesn’t
prove anything in the absolute sense—that’s not its role. It’s a model based on evidence that everything in the universe is governed by cause and effect, as demonstrated by the four fundamental forces. Determinism can only be falsified if we observe an event that has no cause—a true uncaused phenomenon within our physical universe. Until such evidence appears, determinism remains the most parsimonious explanation for how the universe operates.
Your chess analogy is insightful but actually reinforces the deterministic view. The chess player’s decision to change openings is not uncaused or “free” in the sense of being disconnected from prior events. It’s driven by a series of causes: their past losses, their frustration, their access to books, and their motivation to improve. Focusing on proximate causes—like the desire to win or the decision to study a new opening—doesn’t negate the deterministic framework; it’s part of it. Proximate causes are simply closer in the causal chain, but they are still part of the unbroken web of causality.
Now, regarding blame: determinism doesn’t deny that certain actions are harmful or that people should be held accountable in practical terms. What it does challenge is the
moralistic notion of blame—that people "deserve" punishment because they freely chose evil. From a deterministic perspective, harmful actions arise from causes—biological, psychological, and social. Addressing those causes is far more effective than focusing on retribution.
You argue that shifting focus away from blame could increase crime, suggesting that fear of God or societal disapproval is necessary to enforce moral behavior. But this assumes that blame and fear are the only tools for maintaining order, which isn’t supported by evidence. Countries with rehabilitative justice systems—like Norway—have far lower crime and recidivism rates than those with punitive systems. These models work not by abandoning accountability but by addressing the root causes of harmful behavior and fostering conditions for change.
Your point that determinism doesn’t help improve the world because non-determinists also seek solutions is a straw man. Determinism isn’t a prerequisite for wanting to reduce crime or improve society; it’s a framework that emphasizes understanding the causes of behavior. This understanding allows for more targeted and effective interventions. For instance, recognizing that poverty correlates with crime doesn’t emerge from moral judgment but from analyzing causal factors—a fundamentally deterministic approach.
Lastly, your assertion that determinism encourages people to resign themselves to fate misses the point entirely. Determinism explains why things happen, but it doesn’t dictate inaction. Understanding that our actions are caused doesn’t preclude us from making choices—it helps us make better ones. The chess player who blames himself for losing can still improve because understanding mistakes is itself a causal factor in learning.
In sum, determinism doesn’t make morality, accountability, or improvement irrelevant. It reframes them in a way that prioritizes understanding over judgment and solutions over blame. The idea that determinism undermines human progress is a misconception; in practice, it’s a lens for achieving it.