Yes, they will. And if one is happy to take an authority's word for what the disposition of his soul and the orientation of his life are, then one can do so. Many people, perhaps, will surrender their thinking to just such an ideological authority, on the expectation that that will absolve them of the responsibility of a personal commitment or further search.tillingborn wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:04 amNo, one doesn't, largely because other people will do it for you.Immanuel Can wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:39 am One doesn't have to devote equal time to every belief, because not all beliefs are equally rational, plausible, evidentiary, historical, logically sound and so on.
Of course, it won't. But it will pacify their anxieties for a time, at least until they find out that's not how things work.
That is to say, while the "aesthetic" criterion is weak, and the "rational" is stronger, the strategy of divesting of the whole problem upon an "authority" is an even bigger temptation. However, it's still one that should be resisted by an intelligent and principled person.
Which law of gravity are you talking about?
Well, that question is really of no consequence here. Pick your theory. It was merely an example, the purpose of which was to illustrate a belief that is of higher probability than 50-50. It only need trouble you if you're living under the impression that the existence of gravity is less than 50-50 in probability.
I don't suppose you are.
Well, I know a bit about him.What do you suppose makes Michael Behe decide that the flagella of some bacteria supports his belief that they were created by God?
Behe's talking about a verifiable scientific phenomenon called "irreducible complexity"; meaning that there are some organisms and systems -- and a very great number, actually -- that require a sophisticated interaction of multiple parts, and thus present a serious problem for any account of reality that relies on physical gradualism.
Sincerity? I never mentioned it. People can, of course, be sincerely wrong. It happens often.Wittingly or otherwise, you are attacking a strawman. I said early on that I do not doubt the sincerity of anyone's belief.Immanuel Can wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:39 amMoreover, one doesn't have to know every possible wrong answer to 2+2, once one knows for sure that it's 4. Find the right answer, and you can dispense with the wrong ones.
But at no point does "Well, I went for the belief because even though I didn't think it was plausible or true, it was aesthetic" make any sense.
But what most people do not do is simply make important judgments on nothing but aesthetics, especially in defiance of more serious considerations like truthfulness, evidence, logic, plausibility, and so on. You'll find that most folks will recognize that "it's beautiful" is an inadequate reason to believe a thing they already believe isn't true.
Ummm.{quote]You perhaps have forgotten that at first you couldn't understand that ideas can have aesthetic appeal:Immanuel Can wrote: ↑Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:05 amI thought that such a manifestly wild claim I was unwilling to point out its faults. But since you repeat it, if true, it would mean that people choose their "religion" not for truth but because it's somehow aesthetically appealing.
No doubt some people choose a particular church, mosque or synagogue because they like the architecture, the music or the rituals, or because it's "cultural" to them, and they don't actually give a fig whether it's true or not.
I'm going to highlight something for you above in red, so you get what I'm saying, okay?
You'll see that what I have consistently pointed out, is that most people won't. And as I just said, and I'll repeat here: "You'll find that most folks will recognize that "it's beautiful" is an inadequate reason to believe a thing they already believe isn't true."
Are we clear now?
Nobody did.And no intellectually honest person should imply that is what I have done.Immanuel Can wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:40 pmWell, the point of knowing what "confirmation bias" is, is not that one can pretend everybody automatically has it, so it's okay -- the point of identifying it is to eliminate it.Confirmation bias is a problem even in academia; everybody knows that even the most conscientious researcher has partialities.![]()
And this is done by checking oneself against contrary possibilities before settling on an interpretation of the data. That can involve considering alternate hypotheses, or reading contrary studies, or subjecting your data to intelligent reviewers who do not share your perspective, or publishing your sources and your raw data with your results so that they come under a broader critique. Whatever you do, the point is to guard against the possibility that your interpretation of the data is merely "aesthetic" or personal.
But just rolling over and accepting "confirmation bias"? No intellectually-honest person should do that.
The "you" there is impersonal, like the "one". Do you see an accusation of you above?
But my point was simply to say "everybody has a confirmation bias" is merely to say "everybody has a rational duty to be cautious of that bias, and to take the rational steps to mitigate its effects on their judgment." Are we clear now? If you feel yourself indicted by that, it's not coming from me.
But that is, in itself -- your reaction, I mean -- really interesting and indicative of the truth of what I was saying. What's really interesting is that you instinctively take offence at the mere possibility of an implication that you are making judgments "aesthetically," to suit some "confirmation bias" you already have. For unless I misunderstand your point, you think everybody else does exactly that.
That being your supposition, why would you be insulted to think anybody thought it of you, since you are so content to think it about everybody else?