Information is fundamental to cognition

[Logik]

Here is an experiment to demonstrate how fundamental information (EVIDENCE!) is to human cognition and decision-making.

In English we ask the question: "Is this the same rose?"

This generates the following:

Hypothesis 1 (Yes): roseA = roseA => True
Hypothesis 2 (No): roseA = roseA => False

Please respond to the poll and then explain what process/procedure you used to determine the more plausible hypothesis.
Also (if you can) please state your certainty as to the correctness of your conclusion e.g how much probability do you assign to the follow-up hypothesis e.g that you may have made a mistake.

roseA.jpg

roseA.jpg

[11011]

this is not such a good experiment because it lacks too many elements of real world context (external validity)

in the real world, people stumble upon a rose or are shown two roses and there's a variety of contextual factors that aid in their determination of whether it's 'the same rose' compared to another. in other words, evidence is simply lacking here, but i suspect that's part of the experiment

but anyway, i'll answer

i guess the real issue here is how people arrive at the most plausible hypothesis given lack of information; the less information we have, the more we project onto the page so to speak of our own psyche to fill in the blanks. it's like an inkblot test.

omg my head is spinning, there's just so many possibilities based on how you approach it

i'll take the literal language approach (surprise!), also noting that the most important information in this experiment lies in the few words of the question, not the rose pictures which are mostly irrelevant.

i assume i am not being asked whether the picture of the rose is the same, but the rose depicted. the probably of taking a picture of a different rose (rose b) that looks exactly like rose a and is positioned just so is low, so i'll go with hypothesis 1.

there are other reasons but that's my strongest. i am also assuming that roses are far from identical in nature based on limited experience looking at flowers, which isn't something i'm totally sure about.

[11011]

Also (if you can) please state your certainty as to the correctness of your conclusion e.g how much probability do you assign to the follow-up hypothesis e.g that you may have made a mistake.

i am going to cheat a bit and take the literal language rather than implied meaning approach to this part. i have 0 certainty, because it is either correct or it isn't and i have no way to establish certainty (something is either certain or not certain; it's a black and white concept)

i know informally when people ask 'how certain are you?' they are asking how confident you are but you said certain and technologically speaking something is either certain or it's not so there's my response

[Logik]

this is not such a good experiment because it lacks too many elements of real world context (external validity)

in the real world, people stumble upon a rose or are shown two roses and there's a variety of contextual factors that aid in their determination of whether it's 'the same rose' compared to another. in other words, evidence is simply lacking here, but i suspect that's part of the experiment

but anyway, i'll answer

i guess the real issue here is how people arrive at the most plausible hypothesis given lack of information; the less information we have, the more we project onto the page so to speak of our own psyche to fill in the blanks. it's like an inkblot test.

omg my head is spinning, there's just so many possibilities based on how you approach it

i'll take the literal language approach (surprise!), also noting that the most important information in this experiment lies in the few words of the question, not the rose pictures which are mostly irrelevant.

i assume i am not being asked whether the picture of the rose is the same, but the rose depicted. the probably of taking a picture of a different rose (rose b) that looks exactly like rose a and is positioned just so is low, so i'll go with hypothesis 1.

there are other reasons but that's my strongest. i am also assuming that roses are far from identical in nature based on limited experience looking at flowers, which isn't something i'm totally sure about.

I don't see a vote....

[Logik]

Also (if you can) please state your certainty as to the correctness of your conclusion e.g how much probability do you assign to the follow-up hypothesis e.g that you may have made a mistake.

i am going to cheat a bit and take the literal language rather than implied meaning approach to this part. i have 0 certainty, because it is either correct or it isn't and i have no way to establish certainty (something is either certain or not certain; it's a black and white concept)

i know informally when people ask 'how certain are you?' they are asking how confident you are but you said certain and technologically speaking something is either certain or it's not so there's my response

Certainty has an extremely precise meaning. it can be measured in decibels: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decibel

Until you make a decision. we say that your certainty is at 0 decibels. You assign 1 to both hypotheses. You are unable to decide.

[surreptitious57]

Rose A = Rose B

The reason that I say this is because the photograph of Rose B is an identical copy of the photograph of Rose A
Although I could be incredibly pedantic and say that the two photographs are actually entirely separate things
And while that is true there are still the same photograph of the same thing which has merely been duplicated

[Logik]

Rose A = Rose B

The reason that I say this is because the photograph of Rose B is an identical copy of the photograph of Rose A
Although I could be incredibly pedantic and say that the two photographs are actually entirely separate things
And while that is true there are still the same photograph of the same thing which has merely been duplicated

1. How did you determine that?
2. What probability would you assign to you being wrong?
3. Cast your vote.

[henry quirk]

"Please respond to the poll"

done

#

"explain what process/procedure you used to determine the more plausible hypothesis"

I looked at the photographs: one is labeled 'roseB.jpg', the other labeled 'roseA.jpg'. If each image is viewed 'completely' (including the labels) then the images are not the same.

#

"state your certainty as to the correctness of your conclusion e.g how much probability do you assign to the follow-up hypothesis e.g that you may have made a mistake."

Assessing both images as I did: I'm absolutely certain the images are not the same. And: assessing the images as I did, it's impossible for anyone with at least one working brain cell to conclude the two images are the same.

[surreptitious57]

I have only glanced at the two photographs but they do appear identical although this does not mean they actually are
They could be two separate photographs taken at different times but since its a non moving image I cannot be certain
As there is an equal chance [ 50 / 50 ] of me being right or wrong I have to say that both hypotheses are equally likely

Rose A = Rose B = True = 50 / I00
Rose A = Rose B = False = 50 / I00

[Logik]

"Please respond to the poll"

done

#

"explain what process/procedure you used to determine the more plausible hypothesis"

I looked at the photographs: one is labeled 'roseB.jpg', the other labeled 'roseA.jpg'. If each image is viewed 'completely' (including the labels) then the images are not the same.

#

"state your certainty as to the correctness of your conclusion e.g how much probability do you assign to the follow-up hypothesis e.g that you may have made a mistake."

Assessing both images as I did: I'm absolutely certain the images are not the same. And: assessing the images as I did, it's impossible for anyone with at least one working brain cell to conclude the two images are the same.

Would you maintain your answer if the images had no names?

[henry quirk]

...maybe

[Logik]

...maybe

OK. Because I didn't know you can re-use file names on the website. I created them as roseA and roseB.

but.... apparently I can upload two files with the same name so.... try again.

[henry quirk]

...my work is done here.

[Logik]

The SHA512 algorihm ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SHA-2 ) is a one-way compression function which
can be used to assert the uniqueness of a datastream.

Using the sha512 we can determine that the two files are different - they produce different checksums

71048bcfe23ab0f50d824a112b627d1cc71733171cd7b1eabd6cf216d53f9730dc5b844ea352102c052a5722199676a87057ca3ca0b6d2a1ef678e9781d7fabc roseA.jpg
68abd34555618afd443459313e881de5ab23119fc7e5e86e607f3ad6982a9640783dbb23ff1f54b28a50a142b859cb4ee8f914b853c255f8eef440577ea3f2d3 roseB.jpg

Because of it's probabilistic nature it's not perfect. It is possible-but-improbable for two different files to produce the same checksum.
The probability of this happening by mere chance is 1 in 10^155 which translates to 1550 Decibels of evidence for hypothesis B.

What does 1550 Decibels mean to a human?

The Saturn V rocket taking off produces 220 Decibels of sound.
https://kottke.org/14/10/the-worlds-loudest-sound


A sound of 1100 Decibels is enough to destroy the universe.
https://curiosity.com/topics/at-this-ma ... curiosity/


The odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 292 million.
I am about 150 times more certain that the images are different than you are of winning the powerball.

This is how easy it is to miss the forest for the trees.

[Age]

The SHA512 algorihm ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SHA-2 ) is a one-way compression function which
can be used to assert the uniqueness of a datastream.

Using the sha512 we can determine that the two files are different - they produce different checksums

71048bcfe23ab0f50d824a112b627d1cc71733171cd7b1eabd6cf216d53f9730dc5b844ea352102c052a5722199676a87057ca3ca0b6d2a1ef678e9781d7fabc roseA.jpg
68abd34555618afd443459313e881de5ab23119fc7e5e86e607f3ad6982a9640783dbb23ff1f54b28a50a142b859cb4ee8f914b853c255f8eef440577ea3f2d3 roseB.jpg

Because of it's probabilistic nature it's not perfect. It is possible-but-improbable for two different files to produce the same checksum.
The probability of this happening by mere chance is 1 in 10^155 which translates to 1550 Decibels of evidence for hypothesis B.

What does 1550 Decibels mean to a human?

The Saturn V rocket taking off produces 220 Decibels of sound.
https://kottke.org/14/10/the-worlds-loudest-sound


A sound of 1100 Decibels is enough to destroy the universe.
https://curiosity.com/topics/at-this-ma ... curiosity/


The odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 292 million.
I am about 150 times more certain that the images are different than you are of winning the powerball.

This is how easy it is to miss the forest for the trees.

Does the question "Is this the same rose?" really have much to do with the question "Is this the same file of A rose?" The two answers could be completely opposite of each other.

In one link you provided it is written: Converting the energy of 1,100 decibels to mass yields 1.113x1080 kg, meaning that the radius of the resulting black hole's event horizon would exceed the diameter of the known universe. Voila! No more universe.

This is based on the ASSUMPTION that the Universe is of a certain diameter, of which there is absolutely NO evidence of, YET. Therefore, the Universe may still exist, obviously, and even with far larger decibels.

Basing the conclusion "No more universe" on only that what is known by some human beings is about one of the most idiotic and stupid things that human beings seem to continually do. If human beings are going to continue to base so called "facts" on 'THAT' what only some human beings "know", then they will NEVER find the actual Truth of things.

Also, why did you JUMP from 1550 "decibels of evidence", in regards to some link of a photograph, to "decibels of sound"? Did you think the two were related somehow? Of course two different photographs, two different links, two different images, and/or two different roses are NOT the same, and never will be.

Some people TRY TO paint a picture of a forest, out of trees that are NOT even there.