Probability

[QuantumT]

If all knowledge is symbolized by the 24 letters A-X:



Each letter can point towards one of the 23 others and to Y.
Six of them can point to one of the 23 others and to Y and Z.

How probable is Y and Z then?

Logicly Y is the one being pointed most to.

So, if all knowledge favors Y, is Y then the truth?

[wtf]

I'm afraid I don't see Y or Z on your diagram and therefore can't make any sense of your question. Let alone what it means for "all knowledge" to be represented by your 4 x 6 array of letters. And why the English alphabet in the first place?

[QuantumT]

I'm afraid I don't see Y or Z on your diagram and therefore can't make any sense of your question. Let alone what it means for "all knowledge" to be represented by your 4 x 6 array of letters. And why the English alphabet in the first place?

It's hard to make a diagram of so many choises.
But it's really quite simple:
All of them point in two directions. One random and one to Y.
Six of them point in three directions. One random, one Y, one Z.

[wtf]

I'm afraid I don't see Y or Z on your diagram and therefore can't make any sense of your question. Let alone what it means for "all knowledge" to be represented by your 4 x 6 array of letters. And why the English alphabet in the first place?

It's hard to make a diagram of so many choises.
But it's really quite simple:
All of them point in two directions. One random and one to Y.
Six of them point in three directions. One random, one Y, one Z.

Y and Z are not on your diagram. There's nothing special about the English alphabet. Other alphabets have different numbers of letters.

[QuantumT]

Your issue is not with me, but with your math teacher

[wtf]

Your issue is not with me, but with your math teacher

Why don't you explain yourself then? Have you a point to make or not? If Y and Z are not on your diagram, as they plainly aren't, how could anything be "pointing to" them?

[QuantumT]

I'll wait and let others assess it. If they have problems too, I'll feel lonely

[wtf]

I'll wait and let others assess it. If they have problems too, I'll feel lonely

Just tell my where are Y and Z?

Suppose I give you this diagram:

X

And I say, "As you can plainly see, X is pointing to θ."

You might ask, "What is θ, and where is it on the diagram?

Would't that be a reasonable question? What does the English alphabet have to do with anything?

All I am asking you, which you still have not answered, is this: Where are Y and Z on your diagram? If you claim the other 24 letters are "pointing toward" them, surely you must have an answer.

Also if you respond to me could you please quote me so that I get a notification and don't have to re-open the thread to see if you've responded? Thanks.

[QuantumT]

You can think it. It's easy! The initial diagram was just to set the premises.


Edit:
It's been 5 days now since I wrote the above. Does nobody understand this?

[Mike Strand]

Hi, Quantum T. Fascinating diagram. Let me make an attempt to understand your illustration and question, and you can check me on it.

I’m thinking the probabilities of a letter pointing to another letter need to be specified, but maybe not! The fact that Y is pointed at the most, then no matter what the probabilities are, Y the most likely item of “knowledge”.

However, when making a truth claim, we may need to worry about the truth of each of the other letters, because false conclusions may follow from false premises. Y may be the most “supported” piece of “knowledge”, but it may just be the most widely-held myth or untruth.

Let me try a simplified example. Let’s say (A) I know that all horses are animals. I see for the first time an automobile, and (B) my father tells me it’s a type of horse (points to H). So does my aunt (C, also pointing to H). But my teacher says it’s a machine (D, pointing to M). I conclude the automobile is an animal.

I guess this is a case of letters representing conflicting statements, or knowledge-bases that don't agree with each other, which you may not have intended with your diagram.

Does this in any way correspond to your idea of this post, or have I gone astray?
*******************
Well, after wondering about this, my simplified example above may depend on probabilities. Let's say B points to both H and M, but most likely to H. Assume same for C. D points only to M. I would still conclude the auto is an animal, a horse H. But if B and C start favoring M enough, I may be swayed to say the auto is a machine.

Another possible complication: How much weight (credence) do I afford to the items of knowledge represented by the letters? In my example, if I think my teacher's "knowledge" that the auto is a machine is not credible, I may still favor saying it's an animal, even if my father and aunt are leaning toward M. In a way, I'm relying on another item of "knowledge", say E, that points to H, or to both H and M but favors H.

I hope I haven't made your diagram needlessly complex.

Maybe I'll post a classic probability problem that still baffles many folks but has a clear solution: The Monty Hall three-door problem.

[QuantumT]

Hi Mike!

Thanks for the reply!

If all facts say that the horse is an automobile, is the facts wrong or is our concept of an automobile wrong?

[Mike Strand]

Well put, QuantumT. I think much depends on how we define the terms and the reliability/validty of the purported facts.

If you get the time, could you give us an abbreviated example of how your array of letters may apply to a specific set of knowledge or propositions? For example, an array of six letters and two outside letters to which they refer. You might in this way clear up any misunderstandings I or others may have about your general diagram.

[commonsense]

If all knowledge is symbolized by the 24 letters A-X:

Each letter can point towards one of the 23 others and to Y.
Six of them can point to one of the 23 others and to Y and Z.
How probable is Y and Z then?
Logicly Y is the one being pointed most to.
So, if all knowledge favors Y, is Y then the truth?

I’m still working out the probabilities of Y and Z, but, pending Quantum’s approval, I think I can make the diagram clearer with the following:

Assumptions

1. “Point” is techie slang for “linked” or “connected”.
2. In this problem, “point” does not mean to connect things by placing an arrow between them.
3. Each of the letters A – X is linked or connected to other letters in the diagram as well as to Y,
which is not shown because the connections have no relations. to physical locations.
4. Six of the letters are connected also to Z, which is also not shown for the same reason.

I don’t think the letters A - X are statements with truth values. To me, they’re letters or unique symbols.

[QuantumT]

A crude example could be:

A = The Big Bang.

B = The universe.

B points to A. Like this: A <- B

But they also both point to Y, which is not easy to show.

[Arising_uk]

...
Edit:
It's been 5 days now since I wrote the above. Does nobody understand this?

I think some of us are still trying to understand where your Y and Z are?