Has the US economy improved over the past year?

[Philosophy Explorer]

I believe it has for several reasons and will continue to do so.

A separate question is who gets the credit (or the blame) for this? Will the world benefit as well?

PhilX

[Skip]

Define the US economy. Define Improvement.
Who keeps which set of books?
More people lose their jobs; those who still have jobs work harder and longer to keep the little they have; the bridges and roads are crumbling,
but
the secret services and army get bigger budgets; the arms manufacturers, private prisons and mercenaries get more lucrative contracts;
the rich get richer; the obscenely rich get obscenely richer -
and if there's no bead, there are at least plenty of circuses.

[Philosophy Explorer]

Define the US economy. Define Improvement.
Who keeps which set of books?
More people lose their jobs; those who still have jobs work harder and longer to keep the little they have; the bridges and roads are crumbling,
but
the secret services and army get bigger budgets; the arms manufacturers, private prisons and mercenaries get more lucrative contracts;
the rich get richer; the obscenely rich get obscenely richer -
and if there's no bead, there are at least plenty of circuses.

Hi Skip,

Define the US economy. How many do you know of? Define improvement - lower unemployment, wages going up, lower taxes. The usual argument that unemployment has gone down because people have given up looking for jobs doesn't wash with me. Is it because they have found jobs?

The rich get richer. That means more money is saved for bank's to lend out and help expand and start businesses.
The army gets a bigger budget which means they have more to spend on military personnel.

PhilX

[Skip]

Define the US economy. How many do you know of?

Four:
- GDP, which can be calculated in at least two different ways to show different results: it may include everything that has a $ value assigned to it, even if the activity being paid for is destructive to the fabric of the nation, or defers cost to later date, sometimes on credit, or the profit is made off-shore and contributes nothing to (and sometimes takes wealth out of) the American economy.
- The Dow-Jones/NASDAQ indices, which actually only measure investment activity - which is to say, financial speculation. That's been seriously overheated of late, which usually presages a crash, followed by severe recession or depression. Coupled with the droughts of 1929-35, that was a Very Bad Thing. Coupled with the climate change disasters of 2017-2021, it can turn into the final collapse of the American economy.
- Industrial production/housing starts/energy usage/consumer goods statistics give an overall picture of commercial activity within the country, but do not include the debt-load all that consumption might carry, which is a negative factor affecting future economy.
- Labour: unemployment rate and wages. That shows how many people who want jobs have jobs. It doesn't show how well or poorly they can live on their wages.
This, BTW, is essentially unchanged over the last five years; steady at 4-4.2%, with minor fluctuations, depending on new entrants to the labour force and changes to part-time, contract employment, retirement and imprisonment rates.
- Standard of living, which varies greatly by district, as well as by class and ethnicity, and how well or poorly it shows depends on what factors are being measured.


TBC

[Philosophy Explorer]

Define the US economy. How many do you know of?

Four:
- GDP, which can be calculated in at least two different ways to show different results: it may include everything that has a $ value assigned to it, even if the activity being paid for is destructive to the fabric of the nation, or defers cost to later date, sometimes on credit, or the profit is made off-shore and contributes nothing to (and sometimes takes wealth out of) the American economy.
- The Dow-Jones/NASDAQ indices, which actually only measure investment activity - which is to say, financial speculation. That's been seriously overheated of late, which usually presages a crash, followed by severe e3cession of depression. Coupled with the droughts of 1929-35, that was a Very Bad Thing. Coupled with the climate change disasters of 2017-2021, it can turn into the final collapse of the American economy.
- Industrial production/housing starts/energy usage statistics give an overall picture of commercial activity within the country, but do not include the debt-load, which is a negative factor.
- Labour: unemployment rate. That shows how many people who want jobs have jobs. It doesn't show how well or poorly they can live on their wages.
This, BTW, is essentially unchanged over the last five years; stead at 4-4.2%, with minor fluctuations, depending on new entrants to the labour force and changes to part-time, contract employment or retirement.
- Standard of living, which varies greatly by district, as well as by class and ethnicity.


TBC

The second is a measure of various stocks, not an economy. The others are segments of the economy.

Would you like a definition?

PhilX

[Philosophy Explorer]

I'm focusing on unemployment:

Quoting:

"...unemployment rate. That shows how many people who want jobs have jobs. It doesn't show how well or poorly they can live on their wages."

Yes. Indirectly it shows that (subtract the unemployment rate from 100%). Now you're being a bit unclear when you say that people who have jobs want jobs when you meant to say that people who have jobs want to keep their present jobs (not 100% true btw as many people want better jobs).

It's true that it doesn't show how well people are living off their current wages. You would need more information. But it's true that the unemployment rate came down to about 4.1% so, all else equal, that means the US economy has improved in this respect.

PhilX

[Skip]

The rich get richer. That means more money is saved for bank's to lend out

Whatever makes you think rich people put their money in American banks (or even bank's)? Quite a lot of that money - including, btw, the taxes they owe, but do not pay and the bailouts they get for bankrupting companies - goes right out of the country, to be invested in resource exploitation on other continents.

and help expand and start businesses.

To what end? Whether these new and expanding businesses are good for America is an open question.
What's certain is that the money is being lent at interest, which means yet another rise in the debt-load, which has been going steadily up.

The army gets a bigger budget which means they have more to spend on military personnel.

What's military personnel? Expendable people. If they survive, damaged, they become even more expensive.
This expense is coming directly from tax revenue, which, as you've pointed to as a good thing for the economy, is declining.
So where is the army payroll of next year coming from? Where is the veteran's medical, retirement and support structure for an expanded army coming from?
Especially given that a lion's share of that increased military budget is earmarked, not for personnel, but for armaments (expensive shit produced by lucrative contract, for the single purpose of being blown up. If it doesn't get blown by its expiry date, it has to be downloaded on municipal police forces and potentially hostile smaller nations, or disposed of by expensive but not necessary safe means) which add nothing to anybody's standard of living (because the beneficiaries already have way more wealth than they know how to squander)
and it's all done on credit!!

[Skip]

I'm focusing on unemployment:

Quoting:

"...unemployment rate. That shows how many people who want jobs have jobs. It doesn't show how well or poorly they can live on their wages."

Now you're being a bit unclear when you say that people who have jobs want jobs

No, I was clear. You read it backwards.

It's true that it doesn't show how well people are living off their current wages. You would need more information.

I have more information. Tons more. So have you.

But it's true that the unemployment rate came down to about 4.1% so, all else equal,

All else is as far from equal as it's never been before.

[Philosophy Explorer]

Quoting Skip:

"Whatever makes you think rich people put their money in American banks (or even bank's)? Quite a lot of that money - including, btw, the taxes they owe, but do not pay and the bailouts they get for bankrupting companies - goes right out of the country, to be invested in resource exploitation on other continents."

The American money, to be useful overseas, has to be exchanged into foreign currency, and the American money comes back to the US (just follow the money).

PhilX

[Skip]

You're just a little ray of eternal sunshine on a spotless mind.

[Greta]

By propping up the fossil fuel industry Trump is necessarily creating a bubble that must logically burst as sustainable technology becomes exponentially more efficient than clunky old coal and oil. The US will become much less competitive in all areas; energy is fundamental. Inflation will be an issue as US's productivity falls ever further below those of competing nations that enjoy the advantage of cheap power.

I expect that the fossil fuel bubble will burst while the Democrats are in power, and they will carry the blame for the crash

[Philosophy Explorer]

Would these tariffs lead to more or less US jobs?

https://www.osa-opn.org/home/industry/2 ... nel_tarif/

PhilX

[Greta]

Would these tariffs lead to more or less US jobs?

https://www.osa-opn.org/home/industry/2 ... nel_tarif/

Phil, do you know why tariffs fell out of favour late last century? Simply, they are short term fixes with problematic longer term consequences, resulting in uncompetitive industries with ever growing corporate welfare costs.

Just more of the bubble that Trump is busily inflating.

[Philosophy Explorer]

Would these tariffs lead to more or less US jobs?

https://www.osa-opn.org/home/industry/2 ... nel_tarif/

Phil, do you know why tariffs fell out of favour late last century? Simply, they are short term fixes with problematic longer term consequences, resulting in uncompetitive industries with ever growing corporate welfare costs.

Just more of the bubble that Trump is busily inflating.

So tariffs don't protect. They lessen domestic competition. I'm sure Trump is aware of this with his administration which makes me wonder why he favors them?

PhilX

[Skip]

So tariffs don't protect. They lessen domestic competition. I'm sure Trump is aware of this with his administration which makes me wonder why he favors them?

PhilX

https://ca.dhgate.com/product/donald-tr ... %7c%7c2%7c