Italian Scientists Convicted of Crime over their Prediction

[tbieter]

“An Italian court this week sentenced six scientists and former government official to six years in prison and $10.2 million in court costs and damages, convicting them of manslaughter for giving what the court described as a falsely reassuring statement in advance of an earthquake that killed 309 people.

The quake, which hit the town of L’Aquila in 2009, came after the geophysicists told city officials on a risk-assessment commission that they were unable to make a detailed prediction about whether ongoing tremors might indicate a coming disaster. The court seems to consider this akin to criminal negligence, which as many observers have pointed out fundamentally misunderstands how seismology works.

One of the convicted scientists, 74-year-old physicist Claudio Evo, called the decision “medieval.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... cientists/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_L%27Aquila_earthquake

“Earthquake prediction

Main article: Earthquake prediction
Forecasting a probable timing, location, magnitude and other important features of a forthcoming seismic event is called earthquake prediction. Various attempts have been made by seismologists and others to create effective systems for precise earthquake predictions, including the VAN method. Most seismologists do not believe that a system to provide timely warnings for individual earthquakes has yet been developed, and many believe that such a system would be unlikely to give significant warning of impending seismic events. However, more general forecasts routinely predict seismic hazard. Such forecasts estimate the probability of an earthquake of a particular size affecting a particular location within a particular time-span, and they are routinely used in earthquake engineering.

Public controversy over earthquake prediction erupted after Italian authorities indicted six seismologists and one government official for manslaughter in connection with a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in L'Aquila, Italy on April 5, 2009. The indictment has been widely perceived[by whom?] as an indictment for failing to predict the earthquake and has drawn condemnation from the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Geophysical Union. The indictment claims that, at a special meeting in L'Aquila the week before the earthquake occurred, scientists and officials were more interested in pacifying the population than providing adequate information about earthquake risk and preparedness.[4]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismology ... prediction

I'm really skeptical about the above case.

But the case is of interest to me because there are pending lawsuits in the U.S. about some of the loss resulting from the 2005 Katrina hurricane. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

[SecularCauses]

“An Italian court this week sentenced six scientists and former government official to six years in prison and $10.2 million in court costs and damages, convicting them of manslaughter for giving what the court described as a falsely reassuring statement in advance of an earthquake that killed 309 people.

The quake, which hit the town of L’Aquila in 2009, came after the geophysicists told city officials on a risk-assessment commission that they were unable to make a detailed prediction about whether ongoing tremors might indicate a coming disaster. The court seems to consider this akin to criminal negligence, which as many observers have pointed out fundamentally misunderstands how seismology works.

One of the convicted scientists, 74-year-old physicist Claudio Evo, called the decision “medieval.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... cientists/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_L%27Aquila_earthquake

“Earthquake prediction

Main article: Earthquake prediction
Forecasting a probable timing, location, magnitude and other important features of a forthcoming seismic event is called earthquake prediction. Various attempts have been made by seismologists and others to create effective systems for precise earthquake predictions, including the VAN method. Most seismologists do not believe that a system to provide timely warnings for individual earthquakes has yet been developed, and many believe that such a system would be unlikely to give significant warning of impending seismic events. However, more general forecasts routinely predict seismic hazard. Such forecasts estimate the probability of an earthquake of a particular size affecting a particular location within a particular time-span, and they are routinely used in earthquake engineering.

Public controversy over earthquake prediction erupted after Italian authorities indicted six seismologists and one government official for manslaughter in connection with a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in L'Aquila, Italy on April 5, 2009. The indictment has been widely perceived[by whom?] as an indictment for failing to predict the earthquake and has drawn condemnation from the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Geophysical Union. The indictment claims that, at a special meeting in L'Aquila the week before the earthquake occurred, scientists and officials were more interested in pacifying the population than providing adequate information about earthquake risk and preparedness.[4]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seismology ... prediction

I'm really skeptical about the above case.

But the case is of interest to me because there are pending lawsuits in the U.S. about some of the loss resulting from the 2005 Katrina hurricane. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

One can actually see a hurricane coming, but an earthquake?