Why do coin toss results seem contradictory?

[mickthinks]

What is so funny?

The gap between your high opinion of yourself and your actual performance.

Yet, when we crunch the actual numbers, this [the odds of heads coming up being 50%] is not the case.
Probability isn't certainty, Forgy—nor is it supposed to be what actually happens. There is no paradox.

[ForgedinHell]

What is so funny?

The gap between your high opinion of yourself and your actual performance.

Yet, when we crunch the actual numbers, this [the odds of heads coming up being 50%] is not the case.
Probability isn't certainty, Forgy—nor is it supposed to be what actually happens. There is no paradox.

Now, you have just revealed yourself to be a drooling moron. The odds do reflect what happens. You are confusing probability with statistics.

Did you even learn how to divide without a calculator?

[Grendel]

But the 3/8 odds does exist. It's no different from stating a 1/16 percent chance exists for any of the combinations of four coin tosses to come up. The odds that four coin tosses will be half heads and half tails is 3/8, not 4/8, so less then 50%. The numbers don't lie.

The numbers don't lie, but this requires you make the correct calculation.

[ForgedinHell]

But the 3/8 odds does exist. It's no different from stating a 1/16 percent chance exists for any of the combinations of four coin tosses to come up. The odds that four coin tosses will be half heads and half tails is 3/8, not 4/8, so less then 50%. The numbers don't lie.

The numbers don't lie, but this requires you make the correct calculation.

The calculation is correct, which means that the odds are less than 50% when four tosses are made.

[mickthinks]

Now, you have just revealed yourself to be a drooling moron.

LOL NO U!!!

The odds do reflect what happens.
What happens reflects the odds, albeit imprecisely. So, where's the contradiction?


You are confusing probability with statistics.
Am I? If you can explain what you think is the big difference between them, I may be able to help you understand the apparent confusion.

Did you even learn how to divide without a calculator?
lol childish insults ftw!

[ForgedinHell]

Now, you have just revealed yourself to be a drooling moron.

LOL NO U!!!

The odds do reflect what happens.
What happens reflects the odds, albeit imprecisely. So, where's the contradiction?


You are confusing probability with statistics.
Am I? If you can explain what you think is the big difference between them, I may be able to help you understand the apparent confusion.

Did you even learn how to divide without a calculator?
lol childish insults ftw!

Seriously, how uneducated are you? Probability tells us what the odds are of something happening from a known state of affairs. Statistics works in the opposite direction, where we surmise the state of a situation from outcomes that we observe. If you have a 52 standard deck of cards, then you use probability theory to predict the odds of picking out the jack of hearts. If you have no idea what type of deck you have, and just observe the outcomes, and use those outcomes to decide whether you have a standard deck, then you are using statistics.

[Arising_uk]

And Voice didn't say it was about convergence, he just mentioned 'convergence' in his reply! What is wrong with you, Forgy? It's like you can't have a calm reasonable discussion with anyone - it always has to be a battle, in which you always declare yourself the winner.

Didn't you hear? He said he's a lawyer.

[The Voice of Time]

And Voice didn't say it was about convergence, he just mentioned 'convergence' in his reply! What is wrong with you, Forgy? It's like you can't have a calm reasonable discussion with anyone - it always has to be a battle, in which you always declare yourself the winner.

Didn't you hear? He said he's a lawyer.

I thought it was engineer? Didn't somebody mention he had said engineer?

[ForgedinHell]

And Voice didn't say it was about convergence, he just mentioned 'convergence' in his reply! What is wrong with you, Forgy? It's like you can't have a calm reasonable discussion with anyone - it always has to be a battle, in which you always declare yourself the winner.

Didn't you hear? He said he's a lawyer.

I thought it was engineer? Didn't somebody mention he had said engineer?

I am an attorney who majored in physics as an undergrad. I have forgotten most of the physics I learned, but am relearning it. If you can find where I ever made a different statement regarding who I am, then please show it to me. It doesn't exist.

[The Voice of Time]

Can't find it, must have misread or the thread is lost to me (you write extensively on many threads). But it wasn't you I was thinking about, just somebody else who had said it about you. Anyways, you're an attorney then.

[ForgedinHell]

Can't find it, must have misread or the thread is lost to me (you write extensively on many threads). But it wasn't you I was thinking about, just somebody else who had said it about you. Anyways, you're an attorney then.

LOL. You take things too seriously. Lighten up.

[mickthinks]

Seriously, how uneducated are you?

LOL Seriously, you're like a schoolkid trying to bully his way in the playground.

Probability tells us what the odds are of something happening from a known state of affairs. Statistics works in the opposite direction, where we surmise the state of a situation from outcomes that we observe.
So you've clearly never heard of Bayesian Probability!

Yet, when we crunch the actual numbers, this [the odds of heads coming up being 50%] is not the case.
Probability isn't certainty, Forgy—nor is it supposed to be what actually happens.

There is no paradox. There is no contradiction.

[ForgedinHell]

Seriously, how uneducated are you?

LOL Seriously, you're like a schoolkid trying to bully his way in the playground.

Probability tells us what the odds are of something happening from a known state of affairs. Statistics works in the opposite direction, where we surmise the state of a situation from outcomes that we observe.
So you've clearly never heard of Bayesian Probability!

Yet, when we crunch the actual numbers, this [the odds of heads coming up being 50%] is not the case.
Probability isn't certainty, Forgy—nor is it supposed to be what actually happens.

There is no paradox. There is no contradiction.

Then explain how flipping a coin with 50% odds of landing heads or tails, leads to less than a 50% chance of an even distribution of heads and tails being tossed after 4 tosses? Explain it?

[Mike Strand]

Coin toss outcomes do seem unintuitive, at first glance. So do the outcomes of hands drawn from well-shuffled decks of playing cards. However, those familiar with the laws of probability (and assuming a random mechanism to deliver the outcomes, whatever "random" means), have calculated the chances of all of the possible outcomes in such games, applied it to betting, and low and behold they enable gambling houses to make profits. As they say, probability principles work "in the long run", and if these places get a lot of gamblers, they will make money. You or I may get lucky, in the shorter run, and "beat the house".

[vegetariantaxidermy]

I would like to add my 'two cents worth'. I would say that 50/50 is the figure we use because it's convenient, but the real figure is always going to be infinitesimally greater on one side or the other because of environmental factors such as how the hand was angled, sweat on the hand, how you breathe, coin imperfections, air currents..... Each time you toss the coin the odds would be different, in favour of either heads or tails, so it comes down to the laws of physics, which is why we would never end up with a million tails in a row.
Isn't it true that each throw has 100 per cent chance of being heads, or 100 per cent chance of being tails because the outcome is decided before the coin even leaves the hand?