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Pascal's wager

Posted: Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:57 pm
by raw_thought
Pascal was brilliant. However his wager argument is obviously invalid and immoral.
His argument can be applied to anything. For example,
1. If you believe that there is an elf under the Washington monument you will recieve infinite reward.
2. If 1 is true, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
3. If 1 is false and you believe in the elf nothing bad will happen to you.
4. Therefore, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
Pascal's wager is immoral because it puts self interest above truth.
It always amazed me that 1. such a brilliant man can make such a silly argument and 2. that such a silly argument is still talked about.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:08 am
by ReliStuPhD
raw_thought wrote:Pascal was brilliant. However his wager argument is obviously invalid and immoral.
His argument can be applied to anything. For example,
1. If you believe that there is an elf under the Washington monument you will recieve infinite reward.
2. If 1 is true, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
3. If 1 is false and you believe in the elf nothing bad will happen to you.
4. Therefore, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
Pascal's wager is immoral because it puts self interest above truth.
It always amazed me that 1. such a brilliant man can make such a silly argument and 2. that such a silly argument is still talked about.
This is not Pascal's Wager. Pascal's Wager is that, given two choices (1) between which Reason cannot help you decide and (2) about which you must decide, you are perfectly warranted to choose based on a utilitarian motive. Your elf example fails insofar as (1) Reason can help us solve the question of an elf living beneath the Washington Monument and (2) even if it couldn't, we need not choose.

It always amazed me that 1. someone would think brilliant people make such silly arguments and 2. that person would then incorrectly present the argument they were calling silly.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:40 pm
by Hobbes' Choice
raw_thought wrote:Pascal was brilliant. However his wager argument is obviously invalid and immoral.
His argument can be applied to anything. For example,
1. If you believe that there is an elf under the Washington monument you will recieve infinite reward.
2. If 1 is true, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
3. If 1 is false and you believe in the elf nothing bad will happen to you.
4. Therefore, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
Pascal's wager is immoral because it puts self interest above truth.
It always amazed me that 1. such a brilliant man can make such a silly argument and 2. that such a silly argument is still talked about.
Puts self interest before truth????
It does not even do that.
It asks you to throw all your volition, freedom, and happiness away on the hope that believing in a thing that there is no evidence that it exists will provide you the promise of some future state and reward.
It demands you comply with the views of a priest and loose everything.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:41 pm
by Hobbes' Choice
ReliStuPhD wrote:
raw_thought wrote:Pascal was brilliant. However his wager argument is obviously invalid and immoral.
His argument can be applied to anything. For example,
1. If you believe that there is an elf under the Washington monument you will recieve infinite reward.
2. If 1 is true, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
3. If 1 is false and you believe in the elf nothing bad will happen to you.
4. Therefore, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
Pascal's wager is immoral because it puts self interest above truth.
It always amazed me that 1. such a brilliant man can make such a silly argument and 2. that such a silly argument is still talked about.
This is not Pascal's Wager. Pascal's Wager is that, given two choices (1) between which Reason cannot help you decide and (2) about which you must decide, you are perfectly warranted to choose based on a utilitarian motive. Your elf example fails insofar as (1) Reason can help us solve the question of an elf living beneath the Washington Monument and (2) even if it couldn't, we need not choose.

It always amazed me that 1. someone would think brilliant people make such silly arguments and 2. that person would then incorrectly present the argument they were calling silly.
Nothing you have said has refuted "raw-thought".

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:05 pm
by ReliStuPhD
Hobbes' Choice wrote:Nothing you have said has refuted "raw-thought".
There's nothing to refute. Insofar as he's incorrectly presented Pascal' Wager, it is sufficient to simply point that out. If he wants to present the wager correctly, then there might be something to refute. You yourself don't appear to understand the wager either. You would both do well to go back and reread the relevant section in the Pensées.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 6:11 pm
by Hobbes' Choice
ReliStuPhD wrote:
Hobbes' Choice wrote:Nothing you have said has refuted "raw-thought".
There's nothing to refute. Insofar as he's incorrectly presented Pascal' Wager, it is sufficient to simply point that out. If he wants to present the wager correctly, then there might be something to refute. You yourself don't appear to understand the wager either. You would both do well to go back and reread the relevant section in the Pensées.
Like I said you have not refuted Raw-Thought's excellent attack on Pascal's idiotic wager.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 7:03 pm
by ReliStuPhD
Hobbes' Choice wrote:Like I said you have not refuted Raw-Thought's excellent attack on Pascal's idiotic wager.
Like I said, he hasn't attacked Pascal's Wager, and I've pointed out why above. I guess you need to continue to reread my first post (or, better yet, the Pensées). Both of you misunderstand Pascal's Wager and are arguing against that misunderstanding rather than the actual wager. When either you or he provide an analogy to which we could correctly apply Pascal's Wager, then I'll be happy to try and refute that analogy. Until then, I am under no burden to refute an attack based on a misunderstanding. My only burden is to point out the misunderstanding, which I have done so. But I'll state it again, this time using actual excerpts from the relevant section of the Pensées:
1. Reason can help us decide concerning the elf. (Pascal: "Reason can decide nothing here.")
2. This wager is optional. (Pascal: "...you must wager. It is not optional.")

Your continued insistence that I've not refuted his misapplication of the wager does little more than double down on your ignorance of the topic. If that's important to you, by all means continue.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:50 pm
by Hobbes' Choice
ReliStuPhD wrote:
Hobbes' Choice wrote:Like I said you have not refuted Raw-Thought's excellent attack on Pascal's idiotic wager.
Like I said, he hasn't attacked Pascal's Wager, and I've pointed out why above. I guess you need to continue to reread my first post (or, better yet, the Pensées). Both of you misunderstand Pascal's Wager and are arguing against that misunderstanding rather than the actual wager. When either you or he provide an analogy to which we could correctly apply Pascal's Wager, then I'll be happy to try and refute that analogy. Until then, I am under no burden to refute an attack based on a misunderstanding. My only burden is to point out the misunderstanding, which I have done so. But I'll state it again, this time using actual excerpts from the relevant section of the Pensées:
1. Reason can help us decide concerning the elf. (Pascal: "Reason can decide nothing here.")
2. This wager is optional. (Pascal: "...you must wager. It is not optional.")

Your continued insistence that I've not refuted his misapplication of the wager does little more than double down on your ignorance of the topic. If that's important to you, by all means continue.
You are leaving out the most important part of the logic, and focusing on the irrelevant part.

For a start wagering is optional. Pascal is making a false rule here.
Then he goes on to make his second mistake.
"
Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances.
If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing."

If you accept God you loose everything; your life, choice, enjoyment, freedom.
And even if you accept God exists then there is no guarantee of salvation from this God. Just accepting there is a God is guarantee of nothing.

QED the wager is rubbish.
Better the devil you know.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:11 pm
by raw_thought
ReliStuPhd,
Perhaps you are unfamiliar with all the refutations of Pascal's wager. Simply put, it applies to any proposition.
1. If you believe in Thor and Thor exists you will recieve infinte reward.
2. If 1 is true, you should believe in Thor.
3. If 1 is false nothing bad will happen to you.
4. Therefore it is in your best interest to believe in Thor.
Believing in a proposition for utilitarian reasons is to put self interest above truth.
There are many brilliant people that have made silly arguments. Lamark, Philipp Lenard ( the nobel laureate that used silly arguments against Einstein)....etc

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:18 pm
by David Handeye
but putting self interest above truth is immoral? What is truth? It doesn't exist. Truths exist. What is immoral is to put one's truth above other's.
I think Pascal's wager is actually amoral.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:11 pm
by ReliStuPhD
Hobbes' Choice wrote:You are leaving out the most important part of the logic, and focusing on the irrelevant part.
What? The “irrelevant” part that you’re both making category errors in replacing God with an elf? Or that the wager is not optional? Those are the parts I’ve focused on, and they are most certainly relevant.
Hobbes' Choice wrote:For a start wagering is optional. Pascal is making a false rule here.
Incorrect. Given the parameters* Pascal lays out, your mortal soul is on the line. Even choosing not to make the wager is a choice insofar as only positive belief belief in God saves you from eternal damnation if God exists. Insofar as the wager rests on your not having sufficient reason to choose the two options, you’re committed to the wager. Agnosticism *in this case* still constitutes a wager.

*Showing these parameters fail might well serve to refute the wager, but neither you nor “raw thoughts” have done so. You could refute the wager on a whole host of grounds, but substituting elves/Thor for God, or saying one need not make the wager if the specific set of parameters exists, are not part of them.
Hobbes' Choice wrote:If you accept God you loose everything; your life, choice, enjoyment, freedom.
And even if you accept God exists then there is no guarantee of salvation from this God. Just accepting there is a God is guarantee of nothing.
Question-begging.
Hobbes' Choice wrote:QED the wager is rubbish.
You've misused "QED" here.

----------------
raw_thought wrote:Perhaps you are unfamiliar with all the refutations of Pascal's wager. Simply put, it applies to any proposition.
I think you misunderstand what an actual refutation is. The way you're going about it, order to refute the wager, you must follow the same formula. Any deviation from the formula and you are refuting something else. If the formula calls for "x" (say, "Watts") and you replace it with "y" (say, "Volts"), you're not refuting the first formula.
raw_thought wrote:1. If you believe in Thor and Thor exists you will recieve infinte reward.
Pascal: "We know then the existence and nature of the finite, because we also are finite and have extension. We know the existence of the infinite and are ignorant of its nature, because it has extension like us, but not limits like us. But we know neither the existence nor the nature of God, because He has neither extension nor limits. ... If there is a God, He is infinitely incomprehensible, since, having neither parts nor limits, He has no affinity to us. We are then incapable of knowing either what He is or if He is."
We know the existence and nature of Thor (a key piece of which is that Thor is unable to provide us with infinite reward).* Since we're capable of knowing at least what Thor is and probably if he is, we're not dealing with Pascal's Wager, but some other wager. Pascal is not speaking of a being we can know and comprehend—a being about which we can reason and come to probabilistic statements concerning its existence/nature. He is proposing a wager about something completely beyond our comprehension. Replacing "God" with "Thor" is a category error. You can't refute Pascal's Wager by making a category error.
This is part of what I meant when I said you and Hobbes don't understand the wager. I am certainly not saying you can't refute the wager, but you're going to have to offer much stronger alternatives to do so. Thor or an elf simply do not pass muster. That, or you attack the wager on other grounds, say by showing that God as Pascal presents “Him” can be shown (not) to exist.
raw_thought wrote:2. If 1 is true, you should believe in Thor.
On the very "definition" of who Thor is, it's not, so I shouldn’t believe in Thor. See? Pascal’s Wager makes it clear that reason can not help us decide. In this case, Reason (an understanding of who Thor is and what his powers are) can, so your wager fails. NOW, perhaps you want to attack Pascal on this point too. Reason can help us understand the nature of God, etc, so the wager fails. That might well work, though you’re still debating something of a hypothetical, which requires more of a logical disproof than deductive reasoning, etc.

PS This "infinite reward" might still not be enough to convince me to believe in Thor. By not replacing God with a being of equal supremacy, you've not managed to work God out of the equation. As such, Thor's "infinite reward" might not outweigh the punishment of an eternity in hell. "Good Lord, these flames burn, but at least I have Thor’s gift for all eternity." This isn't "gods" against "no gods" but "God" against "no God." The Big-G God, as defined by Pascal, is of an entirely different category than Thor or elves, to the point that there’s no other being that could possibly give you reason not to believe. (You really need to read the Pensées. You clearly don't understand full scope of Pascal's argument.)
raw_thought wrote:3. If 1 is false nothing bad will happen to you.
Fair enough. This part is in keeping with what Pascal would say.
raw_thought wrote:4. Therefore it is in your best interest to believe in Thor.
Not if, as I've laid out above, God exists as well. In Pascal's Wager, there is no "greater-than-God" to which I might, in my best interests, appeal.
raw_thought wrote:4 Believing in a proposition for utilitarian reasons is to put self interest above truth.
Incorrect. Pascal is stating that reason does not help you discern which is the "true" state of things concerning God’s existence. Pascal is saying that if you cannot know the truth—“Let us then examine this point, and say, ‘God is, or He is not.’ But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here.”—making a decision on utilitarian grounds is entirely rational. And he’s right! But if you could know the truth, utilitarianism would be the wrong move and you would go with what’s true.
raw_thought wrote:There are many brilliant people that have made silly arguments. Lamark, Philipp Lenard ( the nobel laureate that used silly arguments against Einstein)....etc
Fair enough. I retract my hyperbole. You missed the point anyway.

---------------

These have been better responses, but they still betray a lack of understand concerning Pascal's Wager. You're both putting your own interpretations of God in and then trying to refute the wager. If you're going to refute the wager, you have work with something that has the same properties of God (which would then be, well, God, so you'd be right back at the beginning). You would certainly be within your rights to say there is no wager because Pascal's wrong about God, but that obviously wouldn't be refuting the wager, merely showing it to be a hypothetical that doesn't apply to our situation (which is really the more fruitful path). Insofar as Pascal starts with “If there is a God” and lays out various characteristics, the response “But there is not a God…” or “There is a God but with these other characteristics, ends the argument before you even get to the wager. But if you get to wager, you have to play by the rules he's set in refuting it, and you're going to find that's much harder than simply inserting "Deity X" and "infinite reward" in place of "God" and "your immortal soul."

So, to wrap up: you cannot refute Pascal’s Wager by substituting something that is not comparable to God and then saying “Ha! You don’t believe in that thing-that’s-not-comparable-to-God so the wager fails!” Insofar as the wager is a logical proposition, you have to show the wager fails on logical grounds, and you’ve not done that. You can point out that Pascal’s Wager is not applicable because Pascal is wrong about God, but to refute it requires a lot more than you’ve done here.

This has been fun. Do yourselves a favor and read Section III of the Pensées so you know what it is you’re arguing against. You might also read the secondary literature so you’re aware of the actual arguments people use to refute PW. These are the types of arguments freshman bring to the table, and a good philosophy prof will set them straight.

I’m off to debating more interesting topics and more informed interlocutors. Maybe someone else will pick this up and run with it if you two want to keep at it.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:12 pm
by ReliStuPhD
David Handeye wrote:but putting self interest above truth is immoral?
Pascal isn't saying this. He's saying put self-interest first when you cannot know the truth but have to choose.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:39 pm
by David Handeye
ReliStuPhD wrote:Pascal isn't saying this.
Of course. This is me, saying.
ReliStuPhD wrote:He's saying put self-interest first when you cannot know the truth but have to choose.
so, I don't see anything immoral in this. Only if you had to choose knowing the choises, you could make an immoral choise.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:43 pm
by raw_thought
Suppose nothing is greater than Brahma ( as Hinduism asserts).
Note Pascal's wager does not assert that God (or Thor etc) exists.
Pascal only asserted that belief in an ultimate being is in your self interest because if an ultimate being exists it is in your best interest to believe in him. If an ultimate being does not exist nothing bad will happen to you. He does not define "ultimate being".
1. If you believe in and follow Satan, you will be rewarded.
2. If 1 is true, it is in your best interest to believe in and follow Satan.
3. If 1 is false nothing bad will happen to you.
4. Therefore it is in your best interest to beliece in and follow Satan.
Of course you may add on superfluous stuff ( not part of the syllogism ) such as God would punish you for following Satan. However, we are arguing the validity of Pascal's wager not its truth.
Truth and validity are not equivalent.
Here is an argument that is true and valid.
1. All men are mortal
2. Socrates was a man.
3. Therefore Socrates was mortal
Here is an argument that is valid but not true
1. All Martians eat snakes.
2. Bob is a Martian.
3. Therefore Bob eats snakes.
Here is an argument that is true but invalid.
1. Nixon was president.
2. Washington was president
3. Therefore Eisenhower was president.

Re: Pascal's wager

Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2015 11:58 pm
by raw_thought
It is perfectly legitimate to substitute any thing (Thor for God etc) when deciding the validity of an argument.
For example,
We wish to determine if the following argument is valid (remember that truth does not = validity)
1. All snorks are borks.
2. All Smurfs are borks
3. Therefore all smurfs are snorks.
Lets substitute ( remember that validity does not equal truth. We can therefore substitute anything if consistently because validity must occur in all cases)
Gorillas=snorks
Humans=Smurfs
Primates =Borks
We then get
1. All gorillas are primates
2. All humans are primates
3.Therefore. all humans are gorillas.
We can instantly see that the argument is imvalid.