A Trillion Euros for Your Thoughts.
Posted: Fri May 03, 2013 3:52 pm
EU energy sector in funding crisis. (BBC News. 02/05/2013.)
'Investment totaling a trillion euros (846 billion pounds) is required before the end of this decade if the European Union is to stave off an energy crisis. That is the conclusion of an eight month enquiry by the House of Lords into the EU power sector. The Lords report says that muddled Brussels energy policy is putting off big investors. In addition, it says there needs to be greater support for Europe's Emissions Trading System. (ETS)'
Having repeatedly predicted the market will fail to deliver on energy, and in the same terms predicted that the Emissions Trading Scheme would fail, this confirmation of the fact vindicates an argument that better explains why. It may very well be that Brussel's energy policy is muddled - that big investors are put off, and that the Emissions Trading Scheme lacks support, but these are merely symptomatic of the deeper cause of a bigger problem. These and other mortal threats to civilization each have a root cause in Ideological Psychosis; which is to say, the disparity between the religious, political and economic ideological architecture of societies and a scientific understanding of reality.
Ideological Psychosis is the consequence of a deliberate mistake. The mistake was to fail to appreciate the significance of valid knowledge, and to shame science as a heresy, such that it emerged only slowly and subject to ideologies that mis-described reality to justify power and the inequitable distribution of wealth, work and resources. It's important to note that in principle - this argument does not bemoan power or inequality. It's not a moral argument. The principle upon which these predictions were based is a functional relationship between the validity of the knowledge bases of action and the validity of the consequences of such action within a causal reality. To employ an axiom from the ethos of computer programmers as a metaphor: garbage in - garbage out. The reason it's not rational for energy companies to invest in the production of energy is the same reason it is rational to pollute. Money isn't real - but believing money is a real and natural object with intrinsic value perverts the calculus of reason that underlies action. Starting from a false premise one cannot reach a valid conclusion. Assuming only that energy companies, polluting industries and governments reason soundly from false premises, because a valid outcome would require they act in a manner contrary to their ideologically described interests, the failure of the market to deliver on energy and failure of the ETS were inevitable.
For the same reason the ETS failed; which is that one cannot reach a valid conclusion merely by adding another false premise to an already invalid argument, massive tax-payer subsidies to incentivize energy companies to invest in infrastructure are not the solution. It's superfluous to condemn such a policy on moral grounds, as another example of the gross injustice of private profits and socialized risk identical to bank bailouts from 2008, if one recognizes that the tendency of the market to socialize risk is a consequence of Ideological Psychosis. Thinking of capitalism as the logic of money, again the logic may be sound but admitting a false premise necessitates an invalid conclusion. The solution therefore is for the worlds governments to accept a scientific understanding of reality in common as commanding superior political legitimacy to ideological misconceptions of reality - thereby subsuming the ideological equation within a valid argument, and changing the rationale for action from national economic interest to what's true and necessary to the survival of humankind.
In these terms, the problem is not a funding crisis in the EU energy sector as such, but a global energy and climate change crisis. In scientific terms, it's not difficult to solve. I have suggested the best solution is to tap into the effectively infinite heat energy of the earth's molten core to produce electricity and hydrogen fuel on such a scale as to massively over-provide for current energy needs. This will enable future generations to sustain massive population while protecting natural habitat from over-exploitation by desalinating sea-water - and pumping rivers of fresh water inland, uphill, without additional energy cost or pollution, thereby bringing uninhabitable land into productive use. There need never be another famine nor a shanty town anywhere on earth given the economic benefits that will accrue from being able to mine, farm, manufacture and build, deliver and travel without depleting energy resources or polluting. Further psychological and social benefits will accrue from correcting for psychotic beliefs and belonging to a species with a future, as opposed to having less and paying more to sit in the cold and dark - else warm and well fed, bearing a burden of guilt for the poor, the polar bears and the legacy of death we leave our children's children.
Accepting a scientific understanding of reality in common should not be thought of as rendering ideological falsities wholly illegitimate. It's not necessary, desirable nor feasible to tear down the churches, banks and borders - as if to wipe the slate clean to start again from scratch. We have to get there from here. While philosophically, science and ideology are mutually exclusive - human beings are quite sophisticated enough to encompass the contradiction. Given such a hopeful vision - or bottom line, the prospect of bringing billions of consumers into a sustainable market for everything from meat to medicines to manicures, it doesn't seem impossible that big investors, purely on grounds of rational self-interest might stump up the necessary. Similarly, it doesn't seem beyond the wit of minds capable of devising financial derivatives so complex as to defeat the very concept of legality to raise capital by passing on the bill to future generations, who as a consequence will be more than able to afford it. They will exist.
Global political agreement is the key log and the greatest obstacle. If politics really were as secular, post-ideological and pragmatic as pretended then agreement upon science, as a valid basis of analysis objective with respect to everyone's particular interests, should already have emerged in international relations. It hasn't because the political flesh hangs upon religious bones - in that, even the most Enlightened states, even atheist states are only variations upon, and rationalizations of the archetypal social contract forged 15,000 years ago by hunter-gatherer tribes agreeing a common concept of God as an ostensibly objective authority for hierarchy, law and the inequitable distribution of work and resources. The long translation from religious to national identity entails the same inclusive/exclusive dynamic, the same symbolism, articles of faith and common myths, and therefore the same invalid relation to valid knowledge one might expect of a theocracy. That politicians are committed to an explicitly ideological identity and role reinforced by uncommon privilege makes it doubly difficult for them to see beyond the ideological facade to the truth of reality. However, if the leaders of our national tribes can only equal the wisdom and foresight of our hunter-gatherer ancestors, the transformation of our fortunes will be a multi-dimensional, qualitative improvement upon the present state of affairs greater still than was the founding of civilization an improvement upon running around in the forest with a sharp stick.
hg.
'Investment totaling a trillion euros (846 billion pounds) is required before the end of this decade if the European Union is to stave off an energy crisis. That is the conclusion of an eight month enquiry by the House of Lords into the EU power sector. The Lords report says that muddled Brussels energy policy is putting off big investors. In addition, it says there needs to be greater support for Europe's Emissions Trading System. (ETS)'
Having repeatedly predicted the market will fail to deliver on energy, and in the same terms predicted that the Emissions Trading Scheme would fail, this confirmation of the fact vindicates an argument that better explains why. It may very well be that Brussel's energy policy is muddled - that big investors are put off, and that the Emissions Trading Scheme lacks support, but these are merely symptomatic of the deeper cause of a bigger problem. These and other mortal threats to civilization each have a root cause in Ideological Psychosis; which is to say, the disparity between the religious, political and economic ideological architecture of societies and a scientific understanding of reality.
Ideological Psychosis is the consequence of a deliberate mistake. The mistake was to fail to appreciate the significance of valid knowledge, and to shame science as a heresy, such that it emerged only slowly and subject to ideologies that mis-described reality to justify power and the inequitable distribution of wealth, work and resources. It's important to note that in principle - this argument does not bemoan power or inequality. It's not a moral argument. The principle upon which these predictions were based is a functional relationship between the validity of the knowledge bases of action and the validity of the consequences of such action within a causal reality. To employ an axiom from the ethos of computer programmers as a metaphor: garbage in - garbage out. The reason it's not rational for energy companies to invest in the production of energy is the same reason it is rational to pollute. Money isn't real - but believing money is a real and natural object with intrinsic value perverts the calculus of reason that underlies action. Starting from a false premise one cannot reach a valid conclusion. Assuming only that energy companies, polluting industries and governments reason soundly from false premises, because a valid outcome would require they act in a manner contrary to their ideologically described interests, the failure of the market to deliver on energy and failure of the ETS were inevitable.
For the same reason the ETS failed; which is that one cannot reach a valid conclusion merely by adding another false premise to an already invalid argument, massive tax-payer subsidies to incentivize energy companies to invest in infrastructure are not the solution. It's superfluous to condemn such a policy on moral grounds, as another example of the gross injustice of private profits and socialized risk identical to bank bailouts from 2008, if one recognizes that the tendency of the market to socialize risk is a consequence of Ideological Psychosis. Thinking of capitalism as the logic of money, again the logic may be sound but admitting a false premise necessitates an invalid conclusion. The solution therefore is for the worlds governments to accept a scientific understanding of reality in common as commanding superior political legitimacy to ideological misconceptions of reality - thereby subsuming the ideological equation within a valid argument, and changing the rationale for action from national economic interest to what's true and necessary to the survival of humankind.
In these terms, the problem is not a funding crisis in the EU energy sector as such, but a global energy and climate change crisis. In scientific terms, it's not difficult to solve. I have suggested the best solution is to tap into the effectively infinite heat energy of the earth's molten core to produce electricity and hydrogen fuel on such a scale as to massively over-provide for current energy needs. This will enable future generations to sustain massive population while protecting natural habitat from over-exploitation by desalinating sea-water - and pumping rivers of fresh water inland, uphill, without additional energy cost or pollution, thereby bringing uninhabitable land into productive use. There need never be another famine nor a shanty town anywhere on earth given the economic benefits that will accrue from being able to mine, farm, manufacture and build, deliver and travel without depleting energy resources or polluting. Further psychological and social benefits will accrue from correcting for psychotic beliefs and belonging to a species with a future, as opposed to having less and paying more to sit in the cold and dark - else warm and well fed, bearing a burden of guilt for the poor, the polar bears and the legacy of death we leave our children's children.
Accepting a scientific understanding of reality in common should not be thought of as rendering ideological falsities wholly illegitimate. It's not necessary, desirable nor feasible to tear down the churches, banks and borders - as if to wipe the slate clean to start again from scratch. We have to get there from here. While philosophically, science and ideology are mutually exclusive - human beings are quite sophisticated enough to encompass the contradiction. Given such a hopeful vision - or bottom line, the prospect of bringing billions of consumers into a sustainable market for everything from meat to medicines to manicures, it doesn't seem impossible that big investors, purely on grounds of rational self-interest might stump up the necessary. Similarly, it doesn't seem beyond the wit of minds capable of devising financial derivatives so complex as to defeat the very concept of legality to raise capital by passing on the bill to future generations, who as a consequence will be more than able to afford it. They will exist.
Global political agreement is the key log and the greatest obstacle. If politics really were as secular, post-ideological and pragmatic as pretended then agreement upon science, as a valid basis of analysis objective with respect to everyone's particular interests, should already have emerged in international relations. It hasn't because the political flesh hangs upon religious bones - in that, even the most Enlightened states, even atheist states are only variations upon, and rationalizations of the archetypal social contract forged 15,000 years ago by hunter-gatherer tribes agreeing a common concept of God as an ostensibly objective authority for hierarchy, law and the inequitable distribution of work and resources. The long translation from religious to national identity entails the same inclusive/exclusive dynamic, the same symbolism, articles of faith and common myths, and therefore the same invalid relation to valid knowledge one might expect of a theocracy. That politicians are committed to an explicitly ideological identity and role reinforced by uncommon privilege makes it doubly difficult for them to see beyond the ideological facade to the truth of reality. However, if the leaders of our national tribes can only equal the wisdom and foresight of our hunter-gatherer ancestors, the transformation of our fortunes will be a multi-dimensional, qualitative improvement upon the present state of affairs greater still than was the founding of civilization an improvement upon running around in the forest with a sharp stick.
hg.