Philosophy Now Forum

Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 11:03 am

Belinda wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 10:59 am I confess I'm not good at statistics but I am sure random chance is 50: 50. I leave it to a statistician here to correct if need be.

Not all random chances are 50/50.

Flannel Jesus, please read my edited version above and comment.

I don't think the way you're using those words makes sense. You're taking about a random situation that is "free from odds", and yet talking about a percentage chance that it happens. That's what odds ARE, in a sense. 50/50 IS odds.

Not all random events are equal. There's no inherent requirement whatsoever that randomness means 50/50

edit: I'm rolling a die. What's the probability it lands in a number divisible by 3?

Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 11:09 am I don't think the way you're using those words makes sense. You're taking about a random situation that is "free from odds", and yet talking about a percentage chance that it happens. That's what odds ARE, in a sense. 50/50 IS odds.

Not all random events are equal. There's no inherent requirement whatsoever that randomness means 50/50

Thanks. I'll try to simplify my language and thoughts. Let me then say that tossing a coin is not 50:50 because no coin is perfectly balanced due to lack of perfect symmetry. However absolute Free Will is no mere coin. but is free of any strictures such as symmetry.

'Randomness' has two meanings. a) unpredictable b) uncaused

Belinda wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 11:22 am Thanks. I'll try to simplify my language and thoughts. Let me then say that tossing a coin is not 50:50 because no coin is perfectly balanced due to lack of perfect symmetry. However absolute Free Will is no mere coin. but is free of any strictures such as symmetry.

'Randomness' has two meanings. a) unpredictable b) uncaused

If libertarian free will has anything to do with randomness (and the answer to that very much depends on who you're talking to, but let's just assume it does), and that randomness happens in the brain in some sort of quantum physics sense, then there are certainly situations where choices are not 50/50. In fact, if that's how we're framing the conversation, I would hazard a guess that MOST choices don't have perfectly even probabilities, maybe not even roughly even probabilities.

Flannel Jesus wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 11:25 am

Belinda wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 11:22 am Thanks. I'll try to simplify my language and thoughts. Let me then say that tossing a coin is not 50:50 because no coin is perfectly balanced due to lack of perfect symmetry. However absolute Free Will is no mere coin. but is free of any strictures such as symmetry.

'Randomness' has two meanings. a) unpredictable b) uncaused

If libertarian free will has anything to do with randomness (and the answer to that very much depends on who you're talking to, but let's just assume it does), and that randomness happens in the brain in some sort of quantum physics sense, then there are certainly situations where choices are not 50/50. In fact, if that's how we're framing the conversation, I would hazard a guess that MOST choices don't have perfectly even probabilities, maybe not even roughly even probabilities.

Absolute Free Will is absolutely free of causation. Absolutely free of causation is what random b) means .

Randomness does not mean free from causation.

Randomness means that you must predict what was, is, or will be, based on limited and uncertain information.

If the information you have is reliable, the probability goes up.

If the information you have is unreliable, the probability goes down.

If you have a history of poor judgment, inability to make correct choices, the probability goes far down.

Wizard22 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 8:06 am Randomness does not mean free from causation.

Randomness means that you must predict what was, is, or will be, based on limited and uncertain information.

If the information you have is reliable, the probability goes up.

If the information you have is unreliable, the probability goes down.

If you have a history of poor judgment, inability to make correct choices, the probability goes far down.

I agree each choice has in it an element of randomness.

BigMike wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:09 am Some people don't believe in free will, but others do. So I'd like to ask if people's beliefs about free will tend to affect how they feel about politics and society. For example,

1. do people with a determinist view of the world tend to follow the rules of society more than those with a compatibilist or libertarian view?
2. do determinists care more about the welfare of their fellow citizens?
3. is it true that compatibilists tend to blame others and hence are less inclined to help others?
4. Is it true that compatibilists usually don't believe in having duties for the good of society as a whole?

Note that I'm not asking what you think about free will. I'm asking if and how a person's position affects their views in general.

For myslef I have always understood that cause and effect is the basis of the will, whether or not you call it free.
Coming from a somewhat disadvantaged background allowed me to refelct that not everyone has a fair or equal chance in society and those that seemed more advantaged by birth seemed to be the same people claiming free will and telling poor people to pull their socks up.
Paradoxically the rich seem to be the ones most claiming they are self made.
Take the Bigfatorangebabyman for example, claiming to have come from nothing despite his $1000000 boost from his daddy when he was young. Freewillers in reciept of massive government handouts for banks and industries tend to be the ones most attacking "socialism".
People who dedicate themselves to helping others rarely address the freewill/determinism debate consciously, but they do realise that people born in poverty are more likley to stay in poverty regardless of the streneuous efforts to improve themselves. And society i rigged that way despite the myth of the American Dream or other fatuous arguments.
But the idea of "blaming others" does not in any sense correlate with not helping others. THe opposite is more likley to be the case. Determinism means change can be caused with help.

A person that believes in free will rejects the very notion of duty. This seems to be a perfectly fair summation of many people I have met who see society as a thing to exploit for their own ends.

As a determinist I am, however, "free thinking". This is caused by reflection and curiosity which are characteristics I seem to have been born with. I am non conventional and have rejected many of the norms of society. Scorned God and marriage, taken illegal drugs, rejected settling down. This does not conflict with the idea of determinism. I feel had I been born into a more stable advantaged family I may well have been different. I do not simply get to reject my motivation, learning, experience, volition and CHOOSE something I am not determimed to chose. Why would I want that: more precisely - how would that even be possible?. My decisions are based on what and who I am. I am determined to live my life in a way I see fit.

In short the question is meaningless.
People are the way they are due to their genetics and their live experiences.
It does not matter what side of this argument they are on as they are determined by nature to select the side. Other aspects of their character are also determined in the same way, and not dependant on which POV side they have chosen as the choice is an emergent part of their character like the other aspects.
But generally free willers are more self centred and delusional. This attracts them to the nasty side of life.

Belinda wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 9:26 am

Wizard22 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 8:06 am Randomness does not mean free from causation.

Randomness means that you must predict what was, is, or will be, based on limited and uncertain information.

If the information you have is reliable, the probability goes up.

If the information you have is unreliable, the probability goes down.

If you have a history of poor judgment, inability to make correct choices, the probability goes far down.

I agree each choice has in it an element of randomness.

That is not what he is saying.
Nothing is random. Things are unpredictable, being so complex it is hard to predict outcomes. We know this from the most simple throw of the dice. But if we could control all the parameters we could predict with 100% certainly the outcome.
So every choice in the same way, almost impossible to predict from the outside despite it being deterministic.
If randomness was true the universe would be an utterly different place.
We rely on determinism for the earth to go round the sun, and the moon the earth.
The slightest hint of randonmess and we are all screwed.

Randomness only signifies that a person has given-up seeking patterns in Nature.

Or worse, that somebody perceives patterns, and deceives others by pretending they're not there.

"It's random that I drank a pint of vodka, downed 20 beers, and crashed my truck into a van of children!"

Sculptor wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 10:28 am

Belinda wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 9:26 am

Wizard22 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 8:06 am Randomness does not mean free from causation.

Randomness means that you must predict what was, is, or will be, based on limited and uncertain information.

If the information you have is reliable, the probability goes up.

If the information you have is unreliable, the probability goes down.

If you have a history of poor judgment, inability to make correct choices, the probability goes far down.

I agree each choice has in it an element of randomness.

That is not what he is saying.
Nothing is random. Things are unpredictable, being so complex it is hard to predict outcomes. We know this from the most simple throw of the dice. But if we could control all the parameters we could predict with 100% certainly the outcome.
So every choice in the same way, almost impossible to predict from the outside despite it being deterministic.
If randomness was true the universe would be an utterly different place.
We rely on determinism for the earth to go round the sun, and the moon the earth.
The slightest hint of randonmess and we are all screwed.

From dictionary.com

proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern:
the random selection of numbers.
Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.

All choices are compounded of choice (reasoned) and chance(random). It's because the future is unpredictable that we have to make random guesses mixed in with reasoned judgement. We rely more on guesses when the situation is less urgent. For instance we don't fly aeroplanes unless the probability is high. When we have to make a choice concerning child education we can afford to take larger chances than when we are brain surgeons.


Wizard is correct about probabilities inasmuch as he has explained, although there is more to probability than W has said.

Randomness in making choices would be absolute if absolute Free Will were the case, as reasoned judgment depends on some knowledge of circumstances. But voluntary decisions are never absolutely free of circumstances, not even in the case of the maddest gambler.

Circumstances don't have a reality of their own without a conscious subject, a circumstance is an evaluation.

popeye1945 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 11:18 pm Circumstances don't have a reality of their own without a conscious subject, a circumstance is an evaluation.

Each individual is thrown at birth and subsequently into a maelstrom of circumstances which he is forced to confront whether or not he evaluates them.

Belinda wrote: ↑Fri May 19, 2023 8:44 am

popeye1945 wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 11:18 pm Circumstances don't have a reality of their own without a conscious subject, a circumstance is an evaluation.

Each individual is thrown at birth and subsequently into a maelstrom of circumstances which he is forced to confront whether or not he evaluates them.

Yes, context cannot be denied, but to the newborn, it is a delirium of sensory stimulus, which through process it comes to recognize and acknowledge its relationship to this maelstrom, and with adaptation the maelstrom becomes order, and it starts to make DEMANDS!!!

Belinda wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 9:57 pm

Sculptor wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 10:28 am

Belinda wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 9:26 am
I agree each choice has in it an element of randomness.

That is not what he is saying.
Nothing is random. Things are unpredictable, being so complex it is hard to predict outcomes. We know this from the most simple throw of the dice. But if we could control all the parameters we could predict with 100% certainly the outcome.
So every choice in the same way, almost impossible to predict from the outside despite it being deterministic.
If randomness was true the universe would be an utterly different place.
We rely on determinism for the earth to go round the sun, and the moon the earth.
The slightest hint of randonmess and we are all screwed.

From dictionary.com

proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern:
the random selection of numbers.
Statistics. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.

All choices are compounded of choice (reasoned) and chance(random). It's because the future is unpredictable that we have to make random guesses mixed in with reasoned judgement. We rely more on guesses when the situation is less urgent. For instance we don't fly aeroplanes unless the probability is high. When we have to make a choice concerning child education we can afford to take larger chances than when we are brain surgeons.


Wizard is correct about probabilities inasmuch as he has explained, although there is more to probability than W has said.

Randomness in making choices would be absolute if absolute Free Will were the case, as reasoned judgment depends on some knowledge of circumstances. But voluntary decisions are never absolutely free of circumstances, not even in the case of the maddest gambler.

No.
There is unpredictable but nothing is random. It does not matter what a dictionary says. The dictionary has many definitions of other fantasy concepts like god. But it is up to us as practicing humans to sort out the weeds and the chaff.
I've never anyone try to deny the concept of freewill by saying that randomness makes it impossible. I have heard the converse - that randomness allows us to steer the "swerve" as Epicurus might has put it.
THere is uncetainly, but only through ignorance of the muliplicity of causality.
Voluntary decisions are determined. They are absolutely not free of any circumstances, as all causal factors determine the sum of the outcomes. Our intentions are just one of a multitude of factors, that does not amount to true randomness, anymore than it can amount to true freedom. Even when we are not compelled by an external force they are still present at hand, and there are many endogenous causal factors that we are unconcsious of. But stuff does not just happen for no cause. We might have our reasons , but that is only half the picture. As we press our choice other factors impinge. This can be as simple as the need to breath or the fact that we do not have the strength to carry something through, or we might find oursleves overstretch physically or mentally.
We are not free, but we can sometimes say we are not forced to act. But it would be a very different world if stuff happened randomly as if there was no cause.