Philosophy Now Forum

Alexiev wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 3:33 pm

Impenitent wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 1:26 pm
they will not kick out immigrants, they will kick out illegal aliens- huge difference

-Imp

Illegal aliens are immigrants.

who have broken the law

-Imp

Alexiev wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:53 am

FlashDangerpants wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:41 pm
Inflation has been high everywhere in the world, and as a result the incumbent party has been badly mauled in every election in the world in 2024. Sometimes American exceptionalism ends up looking exactly the same as following the crowd would have.

All that Trump technically needs to do for the next few years in order to be one of those lucky presidents who inherits a good economy to fluff his reputation with is just not fuck it up by doing anything to trigger a new inflationary spiral of some sort. Trade wars for instance. Or trying to replace income taxes with tariffs. Or making millions of public sector employees redundant.

Just don't do anything stupid like that and he gets to be a 'good economy president' for free because all the work has already been done. Unemployment is around the technical minimum, hovering barely above frictional rate. On top of that, Biden is gifting him a booming stock market, and inflation is falling anyway.

Exactly. Inflation generally accompanies a booming economy. Why the Dems didn't emphasize the positives is inexplicable.

That's not accurate. Annualised inflation anywhere between .05% and something in the order of 5% is demonstrably compatible with a booming economy, but not an indicator of one. Much higher than that is indicative of either an overheating economy, a weakening currency, or cost push issues, none of which is great. Had the Dems tried to gaslight the voters that high inflation is a good thing at the election they would have lost much more than they did.

Alexiev wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:53 am "Just don't do anything stupid"? That seems like we're asking too much.

Quite. But so far nothing is carved in stone. A crazy push for protectionist trade policies in the form of tariffs would hike inflation right back into the danger zone, so presumably the many sensible people in the incoming Trump2 admin will not start a pointless trade war that could only backfire on the GOP as they have one of those "mandates" and would have nowhere to point the blame.

Likewise it is well known that the current state of Chinese debt markets is incredibly fragile and it wouldn't take very much right now to plunge China into a full blown economic crisis. But as any fule kno, the instant contagion from that event would result in a steep global recession and cause major economic woe in America too. So the Trump2 admin won't start a trade war with China that would destabilise the global economy.

So we can confidently predict that all the talk of tariffs was just talk. And obviously all the other dumb shit is just talk too. There's no way that they will actually attempt to get a notorious child sex trafficker - who has boasted to others in the House that he knocks back erectile dysfunction meds so he can bang teen prostitutes who themselves are dosed with illegal narcotics that he supplies in order to keep them going all night too - into the AG's office, that would be a self inflicted wound even worse than making the brain worm Kennedy sec for HHS and the couch fucker a Veep.

Oh please. No one knows what 'booming economy' even means. It's just a term that politicians throw around to get votes. So-called 'economic experts' are famously wrong about everything If they could really predict more than squat then everyone would be rich.
This is what the AI that now lords it over google searches has to say about it:

A growing or booming economy is a period of rapid economic expansion that's characterized by:
Higher GDP: A country's GDP, or gross domestic product, is the value of its goods and services produced over a specific time period. A booming economy is characterized by a higher GDP.
Low unemployment: A booming economy is characterized by low unemployment.
Rising prices: A booming economy is characterized by rising prices.
Rising asset prices: A booming economy is characterized by rising asset prices.

Even AI doesn't know what it means. It doesn't clairfy what 'rapid expansion' actually refers to in a practical way. Now what eventually happens when something 'rapidly expands'?...

What's wrong with an economy that just stays the same when everything's ok i.e. reamains static? How long is it expected to be able to 'grow' before it starts falling into the sea?
It seems to me that in order to comply with the laws of the universe, 'the economy' has to be either 'growing' or 'shrinking' in basically equal quantities (just long enough to get to another election, hence the evenly distributed 'right/left' election wins).


And yes, mass immigration does artificially raise 'GDP' (another term beloved by politicians). It's true that some of them are surgeons, scientists, doctors, engineers etc. but most are just ordinary people with mediocre capabilities and a not particularly good education. With mass, unfiltered immigration you get the worst of what other countries have to offer (and sometimes that's very bad indeed). They aren't going to suddenly change just because they are in a different country

Where I'm from the govt. pretended there is a mass housing shortage (there isn't--and census figures prove it). This has brought about a housing boom which has temporarily lowered unemployment figures. Does that indicate a 'booming economy'? It has also flooded the market with shoddily-built, hard-to-sell sardine-can housing and caused house prices to plummet, 'gifting' people with mortgages that are considerably larger than their house is worth. Interest rates went up along with mortgagee sales. Many homes have become unsellable because they have lost all their sun and privacy due to having what was once a single house next door with trees and green spaces but now have at least ten two and even three-storey ones squeezed onto the same plot of land-- with no trees and no micro-environment. Is that a 'good thing'? The same govt. preached to us about climate change yet gave no protection to trees and green spaces and ensured that new housing developments have NO outdoor space whatsoever which means residents can only dry their laundry inside, and the lack of any micro-environment ensures that they will have their air-conditioning units roaring away all summer long. Oh, how VERY environmentally friendly. It's also given the govt. an excuse to greatly increase immigration, citing a shortage of labour. This, in turn, increases GDP. It's a never-ending cycle. More immigrants, more need for housing/infrastructure/health etc. more need for workers (especially cheap ones who don't join unions)... Politicians don't give a shit about anything except being re-elected, hence their obsession with the terms 'economic growth' and 'higher GDP'.

FlashDangerpants wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2024 12:23 pm

Alexiev wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:53 am

FlashDangerpants wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:41 pm
Inflation has been high everywhere in the world, and as a result the incumbent party has been badly mauled in every election in the world in 2024. Sometimes American exceptionalism ends up looking exactly the same as following the crowd would have.

All that Trump technically needs to do for the next few years in order to be one of those lucky presidents who inherits a good economy to fluff his reputation with is just not fuck it up by doing anything to trigger a new inflationary spiral of some sort. Trade wars for instance. Or trying to replace income taxes with tariffs. Or making millions of public sector employees redundant.

Just don't do anything stupid like that and he gets to be a 'good economy president' for free because all the work has already been done. Unemployment is around the technical minimum, hovering barely above frictional rate. On top of that, Biden is gifting him a booming stock market, and inflation is falling anyway.

Exactly. Inflation generally accompanies a booming economy. Why the Dems didn't emphasize the positives is inexplicable.

That's not accurate. Annualised inflation anywhere between .05% and something in the order of 5% is demonstrably compatible with a booming economy, but not an indicator of one. Much higher than that is indicative of either an overheating economy, a weakening currency, or cost push issues, none of which is great. Had the Dems tried to gaslight the voters that high inflation is a good thing at the election they would have lost much more than they did.

Alexiev wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 12:53 am "Just don't do anything stupid"? That seems like we're asking too much.

Quite. But so far nothing is carved in stone. A crazy push for protectionist trade policies in the form of tariffs would hike inflation right back into the danger zone, so presumably the many sensible people in the incoming Trump2 admin will not start a pointless trade war that could only backfire on the GOP as they have one of those "mandates" and would have nowhere to point the blame.

Likewise it is well known that the current state of Chinese debt markets is incredibly fragile and it wouldn't take very much right now to plunge China into a full blown economic crisis. But as any fule kno, the instant contagion from that event would result in a steep global recession and cause major economic woe in America too. So the Trump2 admin won't start a trade war with China that would destabilise the global economy.

So we can confidently predict that all the talk of tariffs was just talk. And obviously all the other dumb shit is just talk too. There's no way that they will actually attempt to get a notorious child sex trafficker - who has boasted to others in the House that he knocks back erectile dysfunction meds so he can bang teen prostitutes who themselves are dosed with illegal narcotics that he supplies in order to keep them going all night too - into the AG's office, that would be a self inflicted wound even worse than making the brain worm Kennedy sec for HHS and the couch fucker a Veep.

Here's a chart of annual GDP growth in the U.S.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metr ... rowth-rate

Here's a chart of inflation rates:

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metr ... n-rate-cpi

Since I don't know much economic theory, you may be right in general. But recent history seems to support the correlation I suggested. IN addition, the statistics seem to show that the U.S. economy was healthier under Biden than under Trump (although the extent to which this was due to Presidential policies is unclear). Trump's campaign was extremely negative. Biden is the "worst President in history". America has gone down the tubes economically. Crime is rampant. All or of these claims are patently incorrect. The economy is strong (although inflation is a problem). Crime rates are down. The Democrats should have portrayed Trump as an anti-American hater, which, in fact, he is. They did try, occasionally, but with insufficient strength or vitriol. Fight fire with fire.

LuckyR wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 11:38 pm

RED MAN DEFIANT won the popular vote.

Dumping an 18th Century anachronism wouldn't, won't, change that.

Alexiev wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:44 pmNor do I see the Constitution as invioble scripture

What would you change?

Remember, my belovèd children:

“Good poetry will get you through times of domineering mathematics far better than domineering mathematics will get you through times of (bad) poetry.”