commonsense wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:24 pm
gaffo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:16 am
commonsense wrote: ↑Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:17 pm
In order for diplomacy to work, there must be the possibility of the use of force as a final resort.
uttelly hogwash!!!!
its the OPPOSITE!
1862, 1942, 1916 - when the balance of power is 50/50, 40/60, 60/40 - there is room to negociate. which is another word for compromize.
by the time its 10/90, 20/80, or even 30/70, there is no need to negociate, just concoure.
------look to history, and you know what you say above is utterly wrong.
......OK I'm going to make an exception here - due to history i know and so respect - but will say they did not need to negociate in order to win, they would have won eventually, but negoitated for their own ends - playing to the ego (Nixon in the instance) - and signing the Paris Peace Accords was a sham of course, and served most sides, North Vietnam ("we only want peace"), Nixon (thanks for signing, so i can be re-elected), not so much the South Veit, who know their time as limited and were sold out (sold out sort of - but they never fought worth a damn and had nothing to back via force - so went along with it to buy time....buy hope.....the last straw).
And so to ammend my above post a little, if all know the "party is over" and most of the parties are willing to go through a sham "negociation" in order to save face/s - that option is easier than collecting an army to make the same outcome
-- refer to the 38 Cheq "peace accords" for another reference
its all about cost benefit analiysis.
Is the policy of MAD about cost/benefit? Really, tell me what you think.
MAD - I LOVE IT BTW - its utterly HORRIFIC - and why it works! and we have not had ww3 in the last 80 yrs (yet) - for there is no cost benfit on that "Game". so no MAD is not about Cost Benefit and why it works - so far.
and why since ww2 all the wars we have had were limited.
Amen for MAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!
---- now mistake do and will happen, and why i do love Fail Safe (top 10 of all movies of all time) - so WW3 could - even today (Russia still has her 1000+ nukes, and now China and even India and Pakistan too today(Pakis - Indians have their nukes targeted to each other - not to America/Europe to clarify)) - so ya mistake could happen and start WW3 (and why for a longterm garantee for peace via MAD - longterm for the next 2 centuries, so not the best solution.
but for the time being (untli we rid nukes - but the trend is going in the oppostie direction, regional states will (and they will - the wise ones in the 80's ended their programs - South Africa had the bomd and tested it in 1982? Brazil was 2/3 of the way at the time and then got wise and though - "why have the bomb we can never use outside of MAD and so be made a target (I doubt China/Russia have any of thier nukes aimed toward SA/Brazil today (and why in the event of ww3 only the northern hemisphere would be removed of life and from history for a few centuries - and why in the event of ww3 you would be fine if you happened to be in the lower 1/2 of the Earth).
there will be dumb States - and eventually Iran and Saudi Arabia (those two are like the idiots of India vs Pakistan (and why those two latter States have the bomb since 1970/80 respectively.
so ya - though SA and Brazil were wise States 40 yrs ago, the tech needed to "get the bomb" is not high, and so there will be less wise regional states - including Iran and Saudi Arabia in reply that will get it.
fool them, for MAD will still apply, and so they will never be able to use them, but having them their opponent will be forced to target their bombs toward their enemy.
and so by 2100 we will probably have 20 Nuclear States (mostly regional) with bombs they can never use, but targeted because they have them - and so .................
MAD WORKS!!!!!!!!!!!! (so the idea of Iran having the bomb does not worry me in and of itself - IMO they will eventually, and so in reply Saudis will too). bot nations are populated by rational beings that do not welcome anialation. and so MAD works!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amen.
except for "mistakes" - where when we had 2 powers it was too high but not so high to allow WW3 in our lifetimes.
but with 10 nations with bomb the timeline of mistake is shortened by 10 times, and so i only hope MAD will still "work" in the face of "murphys law" in such a 2100 world.
we will see - I'll be dead by then - but others shall see.
thanks for reply.