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The probability of each roll is 1 in 6 and at best the probabilities is additive at worst it's multiplicative. So 1 in 6 added 200 times is a very high improbability.vegetariantaxidermy wrote:Could you explain why?thedoc wrote:IC is correct, s57 is wrong.surreptitious57 wrote: This is completely false and demonstrates a classic error in reasoning with regard to these types of questions.
But each individual dice roll is 1 in 6. Do you think the dice remembers what was rolled previously?thedoc wrote:
The probability of each roll is 1 in 6 and at best the probabilities is additive at worst it's multiplicative. So 1 in 6 added 200 times is a very high improbability.
I have to go with Henry on this one, we have the promise of an afterlife, but in reality most do not 'know' they only believe. Only a few of us have any real knowledge that God is real. Do you have anything that you can claim as proof of God's existence, other than your belief that it is true?Immanuel Can wrote:Sinatra sang, "I did it my way," and yet he's dead now, and that means he's not doing it his way at all. Whatever he thought he achieved, it's all in the past now -- at least for him. So really, what's his boast worth? Not a darn thing.henry quirk wrote: Me, I'll stick with my "brave madness".
No, unless they are loaded dice, and then all bets are off. Proper dice have no memory.vegetariantaxidermy wrote:But each individual dice roll is 1 in 6. Do you think the dice remembers what was rolled previously?thedoc wrote:
The probability of each roll is 1 in 6 and at best the probabilities is additive at worst it's multiplicative. So 1 in 6 added 200 times is a very high improbability.
Then what was the reason for your assertion the surreptitious was wrong?thedoc wrote:No, unless they are loaded dice, and then all bets are off. Proper dice have no memory.vegetariantaxidermy wrote:But each individual dice roll is 1 in 6. Do you think the dice remembers what was rolled previously?thedoc wrote:
The probability of each roll is 1 in 6 and at best the probabilities is additive at worst it's multiplicative. So 1 in 6 added 200 times is a very high improbability.
It was my interpretation that surreptitious57 was claiming that the odds of 6 being rolled 200 times was low, as to be even odds for the entire run, and I agree with IC that the odds are very high. If my assessment of surreptitious57's statement was incorrect, then please enlighten me. Now I agree that the odds of rolling any number 200 times in a row is the same, but those odds are very high for any number. If this is what surreptitious57 is saying, then he and IC are talking past each other.vegetariantaxidermy wrote:Then what was the reason for your assertion the surreptitious was wrong?thedoc wrote:No, unless they are loaded dice, and then all bets are off. Proper dice have no memory.vegetariantaxidermy wrote: But each individual dice roll is 1 in 6. Do you think the dice remembers what was rolled previously?
Yes. In fact, there would never be a reason to believe anything that did not have more than you're suggesting. One can never makes something true simply by believing in it. That's true for all of us.thedoc wrote:Do you have anything that you can claim as proof of God's existence, other than your belief that it is true?
Immanuel Can wrote:Yes. In fact, there would never be a reason to believe anything that did not have more than you're suggesting. One can never makes something true simply by believing in it. That's true for all of us.thedoc wrote:Do you have anything that you can claim as proof of God's existence, other than your belief that it is true?
Except you're still talking about him.Immanuel Can wrote:...
Sinatra sang, "I did it my way," and yet he's dead now, and that means he's not doing it his way at all. Whatever he thought he achieved, it's all in the past now -- at least for him. So really, what's his boast worth? Not a darn thing.
As of November 8, 2016, probably Trumps signature song since that's exactly how he did it.Arising_uk wrote:Except you're still talking about him.Immanuel Can wrote:...
Sinatra sang, "I did it my way," and yet he's dead now, and that means he's not doing it his way at all. Whatever he thought he achieved, it's all in the past now -- at least for him. So really, what's his boast worth? Not a darn thing.
Ummm...nobody told you? Sinatra's not "retired." Sorry, old sport...he's dead.Dubious wrote:BTW IC, when you're dead you're permanently retired from doing anything. That's what "retirement" is for.
Well, that's not a mistake I was making. He may have understood me to be speaking of "any number," but I distinctly recall specifying 6's, and 200 in a row. I wonder how he could misunderstand.thedoc wrote:Now I agree that the odds of rolling any number 200 times in a row is the same, but those odds are very high for any number. If this is what surreptitious57 is saying, then he and IC are talking past each other.
However, you also asserted earlier that you regarded my argument as correct. You wrote,Do you have anything that you can claim as proof of God's existence, other than your belief that it is true?
If so, you cannot possibly be in doubt as to the answer of your question. For one thing (if for no more), the probabilities would then be massively in favour of the Design Hypothesis. That would surely constitute independent evidence for the existence of design...and a Designer.IC is correct, s57 is wrong.
I don't know of it. I'll look it up.henry quirk wrote:Mannie,
As you will and can, read Steven Brust's 'to Reign in Hell'.