Alexis Jacobi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 4:07 pm
FlashDangerpants wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 3:34 pm
People aim to get across that border because they are hopeful of finding work. If you take away their hope of finding work, they won't cross it. So the coming recession caused by Trump's horrible trade policies is really good news for MAGA. Hooray.
That is a way of looking at it. Finding work. But their hopes are larger and fuller, if I can put it like that. There are large advantages in moving to and living in a nation known for its strong laws. And there is a far greater probability of being able to *build a life* in the US as compared to most places in Latin America (and other places in the world). And later bringing family.
Agreed. Obviously, but migration at the southern border tends to fall during recessions, and there's an obvious reason for this.
Alexis Jacobi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 4:07 pm
It is speculation on your part that a recession is coming. Alexis Jacobi teaches clear-headedness, Flash.
We must not let our emoted notions enter into our expressed opinions. You will be docked 3 points. Control yourself!
All the "open borders" stuff is constructed from "emoted notions", I read your links and they are not exactly unbiased commentary to say the least.
In technocratic terms, the numbers are not looking good for the US economy at present. I am not talking about bond, gold or stock markets - horrible though those all are. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model estimates a -2.2% real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025. Collapsing prices in the freight market suggest truckers are going to be hard up for the next 6 months. .... DOGE is trying to make millions of federal workers redundant - you guys want that to happen right? Well cool, but that increases the likelihood of a recession.
And I know something of the situation on the ground. I just had my exciting weekly call with colleagues at my California site and our US supply chains are in a shambles because of Trump's reckless policies. So yeah, the USA is going to be doing pretty well if they only suffer stagflation from this. More likely is that they will cause a global slowdown, and quite possibly a global recession. Risk of contagion is high.
Alexis Jacobi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 4:07 pm
Even during a recession, if the option to take a risk in the US were open to most migrants, they would still take it. And there is
always something to do in the US.
The option to take risk is always there, you're talking really about some low risk situation but that's not realistic for people leaving using all the resources they have to leave poverty behind. The risk needs balancing against reward, and if the jobs market at the other end is shit, then the reward is just some new poverty somewhere colder than before.
Most of them are trying to link up with a family member who is already there. That family member is telling them what the local jobs situation is like. These people are basing their decisions on information like humans do in real life, you are not showing them enough respect. Walker and IC just think of them as animals.
Alexis Jacobi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 22, 2025 4:07 pm
All this talk of open borders that promoted an increase in people thinking they could get over the border was started by fox News and then picked up locally and then lots of extra people joined in because that helped stoke demand.
More opinion, likely unsubstantiated. Maybe if you run your head under a cold water faucet?
It was electioneering. Every time an election came round, suddenly all the right wing news outlets are full of stories about migrant caravans. And then Walker posts about it here, so you can use the search function on this site to pretty accurately track when the caravan stories start up again...
Here's an example from this very thread....
Walker wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2023 5:54 pm
Migrant caravan headed north swells by a THOUSAND people in 24 hours to 7,000 people as Chinese influencers are showing migrants how to cross US southern border
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... inese.html
Suggestion: print some money and use it to give all these folks matching uniforms right now, while they are trudging across mile after mile of Mexico where they might get chilly, then deploy the US army to the southern border and block their entrance. This way Biden might avoid the impeachable offense of ignoring laws designed to protect the border in an orderly fashion, for the benefit of humanity.
And, the fact that the invaders are wearing the uniforms of an organized and unifed invasion force during a time when the FBI director has warned of an imminent threat to the security of the country (to cover his ass), will make it better for the cameras, boost the president's polls, and make everyone forget of what Evil has already illegally entered to do what it came to do.
You can't be surprised if all that broadcasting about how easy it is to cross the US border has an affect on the people who might want to cross that border. The effect being that they come to believe the risks are low, that is after all exactly what you are telling them every day with this propaganda. You're effectively incentivising them to get into one of the magic caravans aren't you?
Then... your next bit of propaganda says that your new overlord will soon take over and close the border! Well now you made it a closing down sale, go now or the chance will go away... again, if your telling that to white Americans to make them afraid of the border, you are also telling it to the latin types who are being encouraged to not fear the border.
It's a self fulfilling prophecy.
