Pascal's wager

Is there a God? If so, what is She like?

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ReliStuPhD
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Re: Pascal's wager

Post by ReliStuPhD »

raw_thought wrote:Suppose nothing is greater than Brahma ( as Hinduism asserts).
An oversimplification, but OK.
raw_thought wrote:Note Pascal's wager does not assert that God (or Thor etc) exists.
Right. "If there is a God, He is infinitely incomprehensible, since, having neither parts nor limits, He has no affinity to us. We are then incapable of knowing either what He is or if He is. This being so, who will dare to undertake the decision of the question? Not we, who have no affinity to Him."
raw_thought wrote:Pascal only asserted that belief in an ultimate being is in your self interest because if an ultimate being exists it is in your best interest to believe in him. If an ultimate being does not exist nothing bad will happen to you. He does not define "ultimate being".
Incorrect. He does not refer to "ultimate being" but to "God" (this is just to be sure we're using Pascal's terms), and he absolutely defines "Him." See the quote above.
raw_thought wrote:1. If you believe in and follow Satan, you will be rewarded.
Satan does not fit the definition Pascal provides for "God." According to Pascal, Satan would fit under either "We know then the existence and nature of the finite, because we also are finite and have extension" or "We know the existence of the infinite and are ignorant of its nature, because it has extension like us, but not limits like us." God fits under "But we know neither the existence nor the nature of God, because He has neither extension nor limits." (Another definition of God to go with the above)
raw_thought wrote:However, we are arguing the validity of Pascal's wager not its truth.
Agreed, but you'll still have to present the argument as Pascal lays it out, because everything hinges on "Reason can decide nothing here." Pascal is arguing (validly, I think) that when faced with a choice concerning the existence of a being so incomprehensible that even Reason fails you, a utilitarian wager is reasonable.
raw_thought wrote:Truth and validity are not equivalent.
Agreed. Given the parameters Pascal lays out, you've yet to show it's invalid.
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Re: Pascal's wager

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Alright, I'm going to try and reset this conversation because I think the fault lies all the way back with your initial presentation of Pascal's Wager. Your point about the validity of deductive arguments was spot on and I was too much in a mental rut to see it. I've had dinner now, so I'm thinking clearly again. :) So, let's start with the validity argument.
raw_thought wrote:His argument can be applied to anything. For example,
1. If you believe that there is an elf under the Washington monument you will recieve infinite reward.
2. If 1 is true, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
3. If 1 is false and you believe in the elf nothing bad will happen to you.
4. Therefore, it is in your best interest to believe in the elf.
This is not Pascal's Wager.

This is Pascal's Wager (I've spelled out the implicits):
1. "God is, or He is not."
1a. "Reason can decide nothing here."
2. You must choose between two possible states:
2a. God exists.
2b. God does not exist.
3. There are two outcomes:*
3a. God exists, and rewards our belief in "Him" with an infinite reward.
3b. God does not exist, and we lose nothing.
4. It is in our best interest to believe in God.

I wrote this with "elf" but then changed it to "God," so assuming I've not made an error in the construction of this deductive argument, we should be able to substitute "Thor," "gorillas," "Smurfs"... "toasters" (!) and the argument will remain valid.

*EDIT: I've edited my possible outcomes to be only two, since I am not convinced that Pascal actually argues anything is lost. From the standpoint of soundness, this will be important, but from the standpoint of validity, I don't think it is. You can correct me if I'm wrong.
raw_thought wrote:Pascal's wager is immoral because it puts self interest above truth.
No. If we were able to know the truth, Pascal would not offer the wager. He offers it only on the grounds knowing the truth is impossible. "Reason can decide nothing here." Basically, he's saying that natural proofs/disproofs of God are impossible, so you're stuck with a coin flip if you don't avail yourself of other means.
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Re: Pascal's wager

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Actually, Pascal is not saying that ( you pseudo intellectual fool).
Ps; love your name PHD.... :lo :D l: :D
You obviously have no PHD. Hmmmm. So convincing people that you actually have a phd turns you on????
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Re: Pascal's wager

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Basic logic 101 obviously escapes you.
So the difference between truth and validity escapes you? And you have a Phd? :lo :D :D l: :D
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Re: Pascal's wager

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Nice try. The magneta font. However, it does not work with people with even a marginal intelligence.
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Re: Pascal's wager

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Hmmmm. So in logic one cannot substitute anything that is consistent?
Ummmmmm,
So X therefore Y
Not Y
(modes tolens) makes no sense to you?) :D :D :D
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Re: Pascal's wager

Post by ReliStuPhD »

So, when presented with a statement of Pascal's Wager that includes all the points rather than the incomplete presentation you offered (i.e. what he was actually saying if you'd bothered to read the Pensées), you fall back on ad hominems. Classy. When faced with something other than a straw man, you crumble. Looks like it's not me who's the "pseudo-intellectual fool."

Enjoy your time here.

PS It's modus, and there are two L's in tollens (and you really should finish the proof: ¬X).
PPS You still need to go and read the Pensées.
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Re: Pascal's wager

Post by Hobbes' Choice »

raw_thought wrote:Hmmmm. So in logic one cannot substitute anything that is consistent?
Ummmmmm,
So X therefore Y
Not Y
(modes tolens) makes no sense to you?) :D :D :D
This is why he is only doing religious studies. They don't take people that think his way into a real philosophy course.
If there were a discourse on fruit, he be complaining they were talking about apples, but not pears.
Sadly he just does not have the mind to figure it out.
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Re: Pascal's wager

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Brahma satisfies all the requirements to be defined as God. Infinite, incomprehensible etc.
Pascal's wager "proves" that it is one's best interest to believe in Brahma! So I guess I should become a Hindu!
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Re: Pascal's wager

Post by raw_thought »

So you are saying that Pascal is saying that if one doesnt know with absolute certainty, one should act on self interest?
"No it recommends belief in the absence of reason."
RelstudiesPhd
I was using the extreme case. However, far less than certainty still works at destroying his argument.
Pascal's argument is that one should believe in God because it is in one's self interest. You disagree with that???
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Re: Pascal's wager

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OK, last try.
raw_thought wrote:Brahma satisfies all the requirements to be defined as God. Infinite, incomprehensible etc.
Pascal's wager "proves" that it is one's best interest to believe in Brahma! So I guess I should become a Hindu!
Sure, Brahma works, but it would fail on the reward side of things (finite life), no?
But wasn't your point (or at least one of them) to show that Pascal's Wager is logically invalid? So far, substituting Thor or Brahma or toaster does not show this. They certainly result in unsound arguments, but they don't show the form to be invalid. Still, for what it's worth, I'm open to you being able to demonstrate that the form is invalid. I don't have a vested interest in its validity, but so far Thor, elves, Brahma—even toasters—do not show this.
raw_thought wrote:So you are saying that Pascal is saying that if one doesnt know with absolute certainty, one should act on self interest?
No. What's I'm saying is that he clearly states that you are faced with a situation where Reason can't provide you with any sort of insight on the question such that you're faced with the flip of a coin. This isn't "absolute" certainty, but the absence of any certainty at all. On the Wager, you're at the mercy of chance. It's not even the sort of situation where you know that the heads side is heavier so that's the better bet.
"'God is, or He is not.' But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here. There is an infinite chaos which separated us. A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up. What will you wager? According to reason, you can do neither the one thing nor the other; according to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions."
This is also why substituting Thor does not work to show the unsoundness of the argument when Pascal's God is in place, since Reason can help us choose. Of course, as I just said (and have hinted at elsewhere), I think he's wrong on this point, but if I grant his premises, I don't see that the argument doesn't follow.


In all of this, I gather you want to say that Pascal's Wager is a bad reason to be a theist. OK, I agree. IF the state of things is as he says—God is completely unknowable and there's no loss for wagering that God exists—he would probably be right. But the point I took your original post to be about was that you could show the wager was invalid or unsound on its own terms. That may still be possible, but I don't see where you've done that.

So, tl;dr: I agree that this is a poor wager, but it's poor because his initial premises concerning God are wrong, not because the conclusion doesn't follow from the premises.

raw_thought wrote:PS: I believe in extraterrestrials. There are over 100,000,000,000 stars per galaxy. There are over 100,000,000,000 galaxies. That means there are over 10000000000000000000000 stars. If only 1 star per 100,000,000,000 has a planet with life,that means there are over 100,000,000,000 planets with life!! The odds that there is extraterrestrial life is overwhelming. However,the distances are so vast that I do not believe that they have visited us.
I'm inclined to agree.


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Hobbes' Choice wrote:This is why he is only doing religious studies. They don't take people that think his way into a real philosophy course.
If there were a discourse on fruit, he be complaining they were talking about apples, but not pears.
Sadly he just does not have the mind to figure it out.
Hobbes, you're like a child trying to jump into a conversation with grown-ups: you don't know enough to contribute to the conversation, but you keep talking anyway.
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Re: Pascal's wager

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ReliStuPhD wrote:OK, last try.
raw_thought wrote:Brahma satisfies all the requirements to be defined as God. Infinite, incomprehensible etc.
Pascal's wager "proves" that it is one's best interest to believe in Brahma! So I guess I should become a Hindu!
Sure, Brahma works, but it would fail on the reward side of things (finite life), no?
But wasn't your point (or at least one of them) to show that Pascal's Wager is logically invalid? So far, substituting Thor or Brahma or toaster does not show this. They certainly result in unsound arguments, but they don't show the form to be invalid. Still, for what it's worth, I'm open to you being able to demonstrate that the form is invalid. I don't have a vested interest in its validity, but so far Thor, elves, Brahma—even toasters—do not show this.
raw_thought wrote:So you are saying that Pascal is saying that if one doesnt know with absolute certainty, one should act on self interest?
No. What's I'm saying is that he clearly states that you are faced with a situation where Reason can't provide you with any sort of insight on the question such that you're faced with the flip of a coin. This isn't "absolute" certainty, but the absence of any certainty at all. On the Wager, you're at the mercy of chance. It's not even the sort of situation where you know that the heads side is heavier so that's the better bet.
"'God is, or He is not.' But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here. There is an infinite chaos which separated us. A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up. What will you wager? According to reason, you can do neither the one thing nor the other; according to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions."
This is also why substituting Thor does not work to show the unsoundness of the argument when Pascal's God is in place, since Reason can help us choose. Of course, as I just said (and have hinted at elsewhere), I think he's wrong on this point, but if I grant his premises, I don't see that the argument doesn't follow.


In all of this, I gather you want to say that Pascal's Wager is a bad reason to be a theist. OK, I agree. IF the state of things is as he says—God is completely unknowable and there's no loss for wagering that God exists—he would probably be right. But the point I took your original post to be about was that you could show the wager was invalid or unsound on its own terms. That may still be possible, but I don't see where you've done that.

So, tl;dr: I agree that this is a poor wager, but it's poor because his initial premises concerning God are wrong, not because the conclusion doesn't follow from the premises.

raw_thought wrote:PS: I believe in extraterrestrials. There are over 100,000,000,000 stars per galaxy. There are over 100,000,000,000 galaxies. That means there are over 10000000000000000000000 stars. If only 1 star per 100,000,000,000 has a planet with life,that means there are over 100,000,000,000 planets with life!! The odds that there is extraterrestrial life is overwhelming. However,the distances are so vast that I do not believe that they have visited us.
I'm inclined to agree.


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Hobbes' Choice wrote:This is why he is only doing religious studies. They don't take people that think his way into a real philosophy course.
If there were a discourse on fruit, he be complaining they were talking about apples, but not pears.
Sadly he just does not have the mind to figure it out.
Hobbes, you're like a child trying to jump into a conversation with grown-ups: you don't know enough to contribute to the conversation, but you keep talking anyway.
Pascal's wager is idiotic because it recommends belief, regardless of reason.

It implies that one ought to believe in whatsoever would do you well. Thus, one need only image any superlative condition and choose that as the best and true outcome of the universe.

Thus if I thought it would be nice to believe that there was an extraterrestrial civilisation that is going to appear from the depths of space and give us a free endless supply of energy and at the same time solve all environmental problems than that is exactly what I ought to believe and that I should live my whole life in the expectation that the aliens will soon come.

Now I can debauch the planet at will in the knowledge that all will soon be well.
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Re: Pascal's wager

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Hobbes' Choice wrote:Pascal's wager is idiotic because it recommends belief, regardless of reason.
No. It recommends belief in the absence of reason. If you have reason to go one way or the other--even if it's 50.1%--Pascal would (probably) encourage you to go that way. Again, the relevant passage:
"'God is, or He is not.' But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here. There is an infinite chaos which separated us. A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up. What will you wager? According to reason, you can do neither the one thing nor the other; according to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions."
Pascal is very clearly arguing that, when reason cannot help you decide, you make the bet on God's existence. He's effectively arguing that, on a coin flip, you choose God. By analogy, if I flip a coin and say "Heads, $1,000,000. Tails, you get nothing." which do you pick? Only an idiot picks tails, right?
Hobbes' Choice wrote:It implies that one ought to believe in whatsoever would do you well. Thus, one need only image any superlative condition and choose that as the best and true outcome of the universe.
Not really.
Hobbes' Choice wrote:Thus if I thought it would be nice to believe that there was an extraterrestrial civilisation that is going to appear from the depths of space and give us a free endless supply of energy and at the same time solve all environmental problems than that is exactly what I ought to believe and that I should live my whole life in the expectation that the aliens will soon come.

Now I can debauch the planet at will in the knowledge that all will soon be well.
No, it doesn't imply this at all. There's just no warrant for these sorts of analogies given what Pascal lays out.

At no point am I saying Pascal's Wager is why one should be a theist. What I am saying is that, in trying to show the wager to be a poor reason for belief, it's not OK to propose all sorts of unwarranted alternatives, as you've done here. You're arguing against Utilitarianism writ large, not Pascal's limited use of it with respect to deciding between theism and atheism. On those limited grounds, the wager is not idiotic, even if it starts with some questionable premises concerning what we can know about God, etc.

TL;DR: If you're going to argue against Pascal's Wager, argue against Pascal's Wager, not some made-up version of it.
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Re: Pascal's wager

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I'm increasingly convinced you two are arguing against Pascal's Wager as it's been presented to you by someone who doesn't know it, so here's the relevant section from the horse's mouth, as it were. Going forward, if you want to debate some other wager, go for it (I'm sure I'll agree with you on the idiocy of utilitarian beliefs in God outside of PW), but just don't call it "Pascal's Wager."
[i]Pensées[/i] Section III: Of the Necessity of the Wager wrote:233. Infinite--nothing.--Our soul is cast into a body, where it finds number, dimension. Thereupon it reasons, and calls this nature necessity, and can believe nothing else.

Unity joined to infinity adds nothing to it, no more than one foot to an infinite measure. The finite is annihilated in the presence of the infinite, and becomes a pure nothing. So our spirit before God, so our justice before divine justice. There is not so great a disproportion between our justice and that of God as between unity and infinity.

The justice of God must be vast like His compassion. Now justice to the outcast is less vast and ought less to offend our feelings than mercy towards the elect.

We know that there is an infinite, and are ignorant of its nature. As we know it to be false that numbers are finite, it is therefore true that there is an infinity in number. But we do not know what it is. It is false that it is even, it is false that it is odd; for the addition of a unit can make no change in its nature. Yet it is a number, and every number is odd or even (this is certainly true of every finite number). So we may well know that there is a God without knowing what He is. Is there not one substantial truth, seeing there are so many things which are not the truth itself?

We know then the existence and nature of the finite, because we also are finite and have extension. We know the existence of the infinite and are ignorant of its nature, because it has extension like us, but not limits like us. But we know neither the existence nor the nature of God, because He has neither extension nor limits.

But by faith we know His existence; in glory we shall know His nature. Now, I have already shown that we may well know the existence of a thing, without knowing its nature.

Let us now speak according to natural lights.

If there is a God, He is infinitely incomprehensible, since, having neither parts nor limits, He has no affinity to us. We are then incapable of knowing either what He is or if He is. This being so, who will dare to undertake the decision of the question? Not we, who have no affinity to Him.

Who then will blame Christians for not being able to give a reason for their belief, since they profess a religion for which they cannot give a reason? They declare, in expounding it to the world, that it is a foolishness, stultitiam;28 and then you complain that they do not prove it! If they proved it, they would not keep their word; it is in lacking proofs that they are not lacking in sense. "Yes, but although this excuses those who offer it as such and takes away from them the blame of putting it forward without reason, it does not excuse those who receive it." Let us then examine this point, and say, "God is, or He is not." But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here. There is an infinite chaos which separated us. A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up. What will you wager? According to reason, you can do neither the one thing nor the other; according to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions.

Do not, then, reprove for error those who have made a choice; for you know nothing about it. "No, but I blame them for having made, not this choice, but a choice; for again both he who chooses heads and he who chooses tails are equally at fault, they are both in the wrong. The true course is not to wager at all."

Yes; but you must wager. It is not optional. You are embarked. Which will you choose then? Let us see. Since you must choose, let us see which interests you least. You have two things to lose, the true and the good; and two things to stake, your reason and your will, your knowledge and your happiness; and your nature has two things to shun, error and misery. Your reason is no more shocked in choosing one rather than the other, since you must of necessity choose. This is one point settled. But your happiness? Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing. Wager, then, without hesitation that He is. "That is very fine. Yes, I must wager; but I may perhaps wager too much." Let us see. Since there is an equal risk of gain and of loss, if you had only to gain two lives, instead of one, you might still wager. But if there were three lives to gain, you would have to play (since you are under the necessity of playing), and you would be imprudent, when you are forced to play, not to chance your life to gain three at a game where there is an equal risk of loss and gain. But there is an eternity of life and happiness. And this being so, if there were an infinity of chances, of which one only would be for you, you would still be right in wagering one to win two, and you would act stupidly, being obliged to play, by refusing to stake one life against three at a game in which out of an infinity of chances there is one for you, if there were an infinity of an infinitely happy life to gain. But there is here an infinity of an infinitely happy life to gain, a chance of gain against a finite number of chances of loss, and what you stake is finite. It is all divided; where-ever the infinite is and there is not an infinity of chances of loss against that of gain, there is no time to hesitate, you must give all. And thus, when one is forced to play, he must renounce reason to preserve his life, rather than risk it for infinite gain, as likely to happen as the loss of nothingness.

For it is no use to say it is uncertain if we will gain, and it is certain that we risk, and that the infinite distance between the certainly of what is staked and the uncertainty of what will be gained, equals the finite good which is certainly staked against the uncertain infinite. It is not so, as every player stakes a certainty to gain an uncertainty, and yet he stakes a finite certainty to gain a finite uncertainty, without transgressing against reason. There is not an infinite distance between the certainty staked and the uncertainty of the gain; that is untrue. In truth, there is an infinity between the certainty of gain and the certainty of loss. But the uncertainty of the gain is proportioned to the certainty of the stake according to the proportion of the chances of gain and loss. Hence it comes that, if there are as many risks on one side as on the other, the course is to play even; and then the certainty of the stake is equal to the uncertainty of the gain, so far is it from fact that there is an infinite distance between them. And so our proposition is of infinite force, when there is the finite to stake in a game where there are equal risks of gain and of loss, and the infinite to gain. This is demonstrable; and if men are capable of any truths, this is one.

"I confess it, I admit it. But, still, is there no means of seeing the faces of the cards?" Yes, Scripture and the rest, etc. "Yes, but I have my hands tied and my mouth closed; I am forced to wager, and am not free. I am not released, and am so made that I cannot believe. What, then, would you have me do?"

True. But at least learn your inability to believe, since reason brings you to this, and yet you cannot believe. Endeavour, then, to convince yourself, not by increase of proofs of God, but by the abatement of your passions. You would like to attain faith and do not know the way; you would like to cure yourself of unbelief and ask the remedy for it. Learn of those who have been bound like you, and who now stake all their possessions. These are people who know the way which you would follow, and who are cured of an ill of which you would be cured. Follow the way by which they began; by acting as if they believed, taking the holy water, having masses said, etc. Even this will naturally make you believe, and deaden your acuteness. "But this is what I am afraid of." And why? What have you to lose?

But to show you that this leads you there, it is this which will lessen the passions, which are your stumbling-blocks.

The end of this discourse.--Now, what harm will befall you in taking this side? You will be faithful, humble, grateful, generous, a sincere friend, truthful. Certainly you will not have those poisonous pleasures, glory and luxury; but will you not have others? I will tell you that you will thereby gain in this life, and that, at each step you take on this road, you will see so great certainty of gain, so much nothingness in what you risk, that you will at last recognise that you have wagered for something certain and infinite, for which you have given nothing.

"Ah! This discourse transports me, charms me," etc.

If this discourse pleases you and seems impressive, know that it is made by a man who has knelt, both before and after it, in prayer to that Being, infinite and without parts, before whom he lays all he has, for you also to lay before Him all you have for your own good and for His glory, that so strength may be given to lowliness.
There is obviously more, so feel free to pull in from other sections if necessary.
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Re: Pascal's wager

Post by Hobbes' Choice »

You're running scared.

it's amazing how the religious mind is immune to so many levels of reason.

I'll tell you again, what is wrong with the wager...



Pascal's wager is idiotic because it recommends belief, regardless of reason.

It implies that one ought to believe in whatsoever would do you well. Thus, one need only image any superlative condition and choose that as the best and true outcome of the universe.

Thus if I thought it would be nice to believe that there was an extraterrestrial civilisation that is going to appear from the depths of space and give us a free endless supply of energy and at the same time solve all environmental problems than that is exactly what I ought to believe and that I should live my whole life in the expectation that the aliens will soon come.

Now I can debauch the planet at will in the knowledge that all will soon be well.
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